As transitional kindergarten elevated, slots for 3- and 4-year-olds in private and non-private pre-Ok facilities decreased
The crimson line reveals the decline in youngster care heart slots. The blue line reveals enrollment in transitional kindergarten courses at public colleges. Enrollment briefly dipped when the pandemic erupted, however then recovered and continued to develop Supply: Determine 9 in “Pre-K Pivot? How Preschools Shift to Younger Children in Los Angeles,” UC Berkeley Fairness and Excellence in Early Childhood, December 2025
Fuller’s workforce additionally discovered that households within the highest-income communities had been the almost certainly to use for the brand new preschool seats at public colleges. Within the wealthiest fifth of ZIP codes of Los Angeles County, equivalent to Brentwood, demand for public preschool skyrocketed 148 p.c as households opted for a free program as a substitute of paying as a lot as $36,000 a 12 months for personal preschool.
In the meantime, enrollment rose simply 50 p.c within the poorest fifth of ZIP codes, the place many households caught with backed youngster care facilities or kinfolk — particularly since some public colleges supplied solely a half-day choice.
The complete impact on the kid care sector continues to be unsure. California allowed youngster care facilities that obtain subsidies to retain their pre-pandemic budgets whilst they misplaced 4-year-olds. That “hold harmless” subsidy is slated to finish in July 2026, and extra closures are anticipated to comply with.
Policymakers hoped the brand new public college seats would release scarce youngster care slots for youthful kids, as 4-year-olds flocked to the general public colleges. However there have been many regulatory and monetary hurdles that hindered pivoting to youthful kids.
“It’s not just flipping a switch to say this classroom is now going to serve 2- year-olds,” mentioned Nina Buthee, govt director of EveryChild California, which advocates for publicly funded youngster care and early schooling. Operators have to reconfigure lecture rooms, set up new sprinkler programs and rent much more lecturers, Buthee defined.
“It’s a nightmare,” she mentioned. “You need to get the OK by the fire marshal, and you need to get the OK by the community care licensing division of the Department of Social Services. That, in itself, takes six to 12 months, and that’s only if you have the money to be able to close that classroom and pay for those renovations, and then have new children ready for when you’re reopening.” Many operators determined it was simpler to close down, she mentioned.
Extra importantly, Buthee mentioned the economics of kid care facilities depend on older 3- and 4-year-olds, who’re cheaper to deal with. State laws require one instructor for each three or 4 infants or toddlers. For 4-year-olds, it’s one instructor for each 12 kids.
In line with Buthee, most youngster care facilities function their toddler applications at a slight loss and offset that with income from their preschoolers. “When you’re losing those preschoolers, there are no funds to make up,” mentioned Buthee. “The whole business model completely falls apart.”
One clear lesson, in keeping with each Fuller and Buthee, is to permit group youngster care facilities to be a part of the growth of publicly funded preschool applications fairly than simply public colleges. That approach, as a substitute of shedding kids and income, these facilities can maintain on to older children and proceed working. When Oklahoma expanded its preschool program in 1998, the state additionally skilled widespread closures of present facilities. Oklahoma then determined to open funding to group suppliers. Each Fuller and Buthee praised New York Metropolis for together with group facilities in its pre-Ok growth from the beginning. Nonetheless, there have been issues there too. As public subsidies rose for 4-year-olds, toddler and toddler slots shrunk.
Fuller stays a proponent of early childhood schooling, and agrees that center class households want reduction from youngster care bills, however he warns there might be dangerous penalties when well-intentioned concepts are poorly carried out.
Training programs are sophisticated and once you tinker with one small half, there generally is a ripple impact. Fuller doesn’t have a fast repair. Policymakers need to stability the typically conflicting targets of bettering schooling for low-income kids and providing reduction from the excessive value of childcare. There’s no one-size-fits-all reply.
