Buyers purchase the frequent inventory of Michael Saylor’s bitcoin (BTC) treasury firm, Technique (previously MicroStrategy), as a result of they think about administration to supply ‘BTC Yield.’ Sadly, that metric has turned damaging for the primary time in years.
Constructive for yearly since 2020 and each quarter since April 2023, BTC Yield is the rise in Technique’s BTC holdings per share of MSTR. This quarter, Technique’s BTC Yield is -1%.
In different phrases, Technique holds much less BTC per share of MSTR than it did on September 30, 2025.
The downturn follows the corporate’s contentious determination to dilute MSTR to put $1.44 billion in its ‘USD Reserve,’ slightly than shopping for BTC. This so-called USD Reserve, which is solely money, pays future dividend obligations on its most popular shares.
This quarter’s damaging BTC Yield additionally displays waning investor confidence in MSTR, which has been steadily shedding its premium to the corporate’s BTC holdings for years.
Technique’s declining BTC Yield and mNAV
BTC Yield is the core metric by which to gauge Saylor’s objective of accretive dilution. Particularly, Technique’s sale of MSTR when it trades at a multiple-to-Web Asset Worth (mNAV) larger than 1x, in addition to different securities like bonds and most popular shares, permits the corporate to purchase extra BTC holdings per MSTR share. This accretes BTC on a dilution-adjusted foundation, also called accretive dilution.
After all, promoting down the mNAV premium of MSTR within the first place punishes prior shareholders. Certainly, accretive dilution solely advantages prior shareholders if future shareholders are prepared to pay an excellent greater mNAV, or if the value of bitcoin subsequently rallies to recoup the dilution.
Administration, after all, usually exclude this easy clarification after they boast about their constructive, annual BTC Yield figures since 2020.
For years, they’ve averted publishing a chart of MSTR’s fundamental mNAV premium – arguably the corporate’s most necessary metric of investor confidence. That’s in all probability as a result of Technique’s mNAV has been declining since Could 2023.
When new traders are prepared to pay much less of a premium for MSTR versus merely shopping for BTC straight, this means decreased confidence in administration.
At present, traders are prepared to pay a mere 16% premium for the Enterprise Worth of Technique, together with its most popular shares and bonds, above its BTC holdings. In the present day’s 16% compares to an mNAV premium greater than 240% as lately as November 2024.
The corporate’s fundamental mNAV, excluding most popular shares and bonds, is definitely lower than 1x. In different phrases, the market capitalization of MSTR is at present lower than the worth of Technique’s BTC.
