Politicians and folks around the globe are holding their breath to see who wins the US presidential election on Tuesday. Will it’s a second time period for the Republican Donald Trump? Or victory for the Democrat Kamala Harris, who could be the primary lady POTUS, and solely the second particular person of color?
In contrast to within the UK the place a primary minister will be kicked out of Downing Avenue in a single day after a common election, there can be a transition interval. The following president won’t take workplace till Inauguration Day – 20 January 2025.
However when will we all know who the subsequent president can be? Current precedents recommend we might not know on the evening after polls shut however some days and even weeks later – particularly if the outcome appears to be like shut this time, as has been broadly predicted.
Current delays – and what used to occur
In 2000, election day was 7 November however George W Bush didn’t grow to be president-elect till 13 December. That was when his Democratic opponent Al Gore conceded after the US Supreme Courtroom overruled the Florida Supreme Courtroom, by 5-4, to halt a recount in what was then a swing state.
We’ll by no means know who actually bought essentially the most votes within the Sunshine State – there have been most likely just a few hundred votes in it.
It’s a matter of file that Florida gave Bush victory within the Electoral School by 271 to 266, though Gore bought half 1,000,000 extra votes than him nationwide.
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George W Bush, the then US president-elect, speaking to the press concerning the transition of energy at Austin airport on 26 December 2000. Pic: Reuters
Donald Trump nonetheless insisted that he had gained. His supporters launched a number of authorized challenges to attempt to overturn leads to swing states corresponding to Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. They failed however on January 6 2021, a violent pro-Trump mob stormed the US Capitol in an occasion to stop vp Mike Pence from certifying the outcome formally as a victory for Biden.
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Joe Biden addresses the nation after the US Electoral School formally confirmed his victory over President Donald Trump within the 2020 election. Pic: Reuters
Regardless of these examples lately, in fashionable US elections, the winner has most frequently been identified just a few hours after counting begins.
By conference, the result’s accepted all spherical as soon as one of many two candidates concedes defeat and when the Related Press (AP), America’s 170-year-old neutral wire service, “calls a winner”.
AP can be calling a complete of 5,000 election outcomes subsequent week. It estimates there may very well be proof of a transparent presidential winner round seven hours after counting begins on the Jap seaboard – round 1am in Washington DC and 6am in London on Wednesday 6 November. That can solely work if Harris or Trump is working comfortably forward in election returns throughout the nation.
If it appears to be like like Trump has gained outright, Kamala Harris will be anticipated to concede within the small hours, identical to Hillary Clinton in 2016. A shocked Mrs Clinton phoned an equally stunned Trump to congratulate him after which made a proper concession speech to her supporters just a few hours later.
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Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, supported by her husband Invoice, at her concession speech to Donald Trump in 2016. Pic: Reuters
Shut race might find yourself because the ‘litigation election’
Trump has stated “I want a landslide” this time. He has additionally promised: “If I do [lose] and it’s free and fair absolutely I will accept the results.” We will see. He didn’t concede in 2020 and nonetheless insists, falsely, that he gained then. Amazingly a majority of Republican voters say they agree with him.
All of the polls recommend this can be a really shut election. If Trump appears to be like like shedding narrowly as a result of one or two swing states go in opposition to him, he’ll do what he can to unfold mistrust, to delay Harris being declared winner and, finally maybe, to overturn his defeat on the polls.
That’s the reason insiders are calling this the “litigation election”. Each side are assembling large authorized groups able to struggle it out. The Trump marketing campaign is recalling conservative attorneys who acted for him in 2020. It claims to have 230,000 volunteers looking out in swing states.
To move up her authorized staff Harris has recruited Dana Remus, a former White Home counsel and Marc Elias, a tricky litigation lawyer, who has gained instances opening the door for Democrats to have their very own “dark money” for authorized instances to counter the money from pro-Trump billionaires corresponding to Elon Musk.
In fact, if Harris is narrowly defeated and the Democrats suspect foul play, the Democrats might additionally problem some outcomes. In contrast to the Republicans, nevertheless, they haven’t overtly mentioned this as a tactic to grab victory by the again door.
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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris might proceed combating within the courts if the outcome is not clear. Pics: AP
Trump and his supporters are laying the bottom for mistrusting the end result this yr. They’re already alleging “cheating” and “voter fraud” in early voting. They’re claiming prematurely that this can be a “rigged election” in opposition to them.
Greater than 200 authorized fits have been filed involving voters’ identification, mail-in voting, voting machines, overseas interference and intimidation.
Voters should be US residents. This yr complaints by Trump supporters are specializing in allegations that unlawful immigrants are managing to forged ballots.
2020 was a chaotic and improvised dry-run which uncovered the ways which may very well be used to problem one other Trump defeat. The Republicans are higher organised this time.
The hurdles between the election and inauguration
There are alternatives to overturn or stall the method at every stage within the weeks main as much as the inauguration.
Every state has till 11 December to certify the outcomes. Stopping this may very well be executed both by efficiently alleging that voting has not been performed correctly or that ballots had been forged by individuals ineligible to vote. However none of Trump’s complaints about voting irregularity had been upheld in 2020.
Native election boards might additionally refuse to certify outcomes. This was unknown in America but it surely has occurred greater than twenty instances throughout eight states since 2020.
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How will America vote on election day?
Nevertheless, federal regulation has been reformed in order that state governors alone have the ultimate energy to certify, until a courtroom guidelines in any other case, with Congress obliged to deal with their certifications as conclusive. To this point even Republican governors have gone forward with certification.
Technically the votes forged by the citizens matter as a result of they decide on a state-by-state foundation who makes up the Electoral School which “elects” the president. It has 538 members – so a candidate wants 270 to win. All however two states allocate their electors on a winner-takes-all foundation, to the candidate who will get essentially the most votes of their state.
If neither candidate reaches the 270 mark and the Electoral School as an entire can’t full certification, the overall election result’s void. The Home of Representatives elects the president in a so-called Contingent Election.
This takes place on a one-vote-per-state foundation. The Republicans management extra state delegations now and are doubtless to take action after subsequent week’s election. In a Contingent Election, the 100-member US Senate elects the vp – who might come from the opposite get together.
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Then comes the fateful date of 6 January when the vp and the newly elected Congress meet to certify the brand new president. Assuming Harris, say, had averted a Contingent Election, it’s nonetheless attainable {that a} Republican majority Congress might refuse to certify her victory, despite the fact that as outgoing vp she can be within the chair. This presumably is what Trump was referring to throughout his Madison Sq. Backyard rally when he stated he and Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker, have “a secret… I’ll tell you what it is when the race is over”.
If the election result’s contested, authorized proceedings at each degree are a certainty.
Ought to the argument attain the conservative-dominated US Supreme Courtroom all of the indications are that Trump will get a sympathetic listening to; he appointed three of its members.
Within the meantime, if there’s uncertainty concerning the outcome which drags on, there’s a danger of widespread civil unrest.
That’s the greatest motive for hoping the US presidential election is settled on the evening or very shortly afterwards.
