QUESTION: Do you purchase this declare that Trump is crashing the US inventory market by 20% to power the Fed to decrease charges so the cash will go into Treasuries? Is he breaking the London metals sellers’ maintain to suppress the gold worth? Lastly, do you purchase this concept that Trump and his Secretary of the Treasury need to revalue gold and reestablish Bretton Woods?
FD
ANSWER: Nicely, that could be a mouthful. Look, the pc projected this correction a yr prematurely. Right here is the Dow Month-to-month Timing Array from September 2024. It confirmed the turning level in November, which stays as the best month-to-month closing, a turning level in March, and a Panic Cycle in April. This was earlier than Trump even received the election. On the November WEC in 2024, I stated that I needed Trump nicely, nevertheless it didn’t matter who received; this is able to not stop the recession into 2028.
No person, however no person, can crash the market intentionally. Once I was referred to as into the Brady Fee to research the 1987 Crash, they began with that very same fictional nonsense – We’re going to discover that quick that prompted the crash. I stated, look, each investigation since 1907 started with those self same phrases, and no person has ever been discovered. Look, the federal government can’t create perpetual prosperity utilizing Keynesianism or Marxism any greater than it might help a market. The Fed tried through the Nice Despair and failed, as did the Japanese authorities tried that through the 1989 Crash and failed. In each circumstances, they made it worse by giving false hope that the federal government can save the day. THEY CANNOT!!!!!
I met with the Swiss central financial institution and warned them that the peg would break, as I did with the British authorities. I used to be informed they might maintain it, and I stated the chances have been on my facet since NOBODY has ever been ready to try this. The peg broke, and I used to be named FOREX Particular person of the yr.
Trump has not intentionally crashed the inventory market to get the Fed to decrease charges and promote extra treasuries. Come on! First, the belief is that these persons are smarter than they’re, and second, that they’ve limitless energy, which was the idea of Karl Marx. If both of those assumptions have been true, then I shouldn’t be referred to as in by governments worldwide. Why name me in the event that they possess superior data and energy? They’re no totally different than the remainder of us.
So long as individuals make up these conspiracy theories, they don’t seem to be simply feeding propaganda that stops individuals from understanding how the system actually works, however they’re supporting the theories of Karl Marx that the federal government has the facility and may use it. That’s the Democrats’ dogma.
Elon Musk states at this cupboard assembly that the rationale he’s there may be to scale back the price of the federal government, BECAUSE the debt is unsustainable. He states that the curiosity expenditures have exceeded protection. Reducing rates of interest is NOT a long-term answer. You can’t frequently run these deficits indefinitely. This may all come crashing down when the road on the door to by Treauries not kinds. Then you definitely get the sovereign debt disaster and the default.
Scott Bessent on the top of central planning and a brand new coming world order monetarily. Whereas Bessent mentions a reorganization of the world financial and commerce system on this clip previous to him changing into the Secretary of the Treasury, he mentions Bretton Woods, the Treaty of Versailles, and the Worldwide Metal Settlement.
The Treaty of Versailles (1919)
The Treaty primarily centered on ending World Warfare I and imposing punitive measures on Germany, moderately than comprehensively regulating worldwide commerce. Nonetheless, it did embody particular financial provisions that not directly influenced commerce:
Reparations and Financial Restrictions:Germany was required to pay large reparations, which strained its economic system and restricted its capability to interact in worldwide commerce. The treaty additionally mandated the give up of German service provider ships to the Allies, lowering Germany’s capacity to take part in maritime commerce.
Useful resource and Territorial Losses:Germany misplaced territories wealthy in sources (e.g., coal-rich Saar Basin to French management), affecting its industrial output and commerce potential. Colonies have been redistributed as League of Nations mandates, altering world useful resource entry.
Entry to Waterways:The treaty internationalized key waterways just like the Kiel Canal and Rhine River, making certain open passage for all nations, which facilitated commerce routes however was not a direct regulation of commerce itself.
Most-Favored-Nation Clauses:Some provisions required Germany to grant preferential commerce phrases to Allied nations briefly, although these have been restricted in scope and period.
League of Nations Function:Whereas the treaty established the League of Nations, broader worldwide commerce regulation was left to later initiatives (e.g., 1927 World Financial Convention) moderately than the treaty itself.
Consequently, the Treaty of Versailles didn’t systematically regulate worldwide commerce however imposed financial measures on Germany that not directly impacted world commerce. Broader commerce frameworks emerged later by way of different agreements and the League of Nations.
The Worldwide Metal Settlement
This was instituted in 1926 in Europe and was the primary worldwide metal cartel. France didn’t have the mandatory coke to essentially make metal, as was the case with Germany. Additionally, the Germans had flooded 18 out of 19 of the French mines, which hindered their capacity to regain metal manufacturing. This was an try to manage commerce and to maintain costs, whereas equitably dividing up quotas amongst member states and corporations. This settlement confronted difficulties on account of Nazi Germany’s need to re-arm and elevated British and American exports after the Wall Avenue crash of 1929. The US was flooding metal into Europe. Therefore, this settlement collapsed after the Nice Despair of Thirties.
The Euro was an try and resurrect the thought of Bretton Woods with a single foreign money. They have been pushing Britain to affix the euro and even staged a coup to take away Margaret Thatcher. John Main took the pound into the ERM, and that collapse made Soros wealthy and well-known. Eliminating floating currencies is incompatible with politics so long as they’re free to interact in deficit spending and infinite borrowing.
This obsession with world commerce and home economics has been occurring for hundreds of years. Napoleon had really summoned the most effective minds and skills from throughout Europe into his service. His court docket was intentionally full of ready males from throughout Europe: Dutch, German, Italian, and even Polish. These foreigners labored within the highest workplaces of his imperial civil service. As we speak, Macron would go into convulsions if non-French ministers have been working the federal government in France.
Napoleon created the primary single foreign money in Europe after the Roman Empire. He standardized the load of the cash in order that 40 francs equaled 40 Lire in Italy and 320 reales in Spain. This was actually Napoleon’s thought of resurrecting the Roman Empire.
Certainly, Napoleon was making a single foreign money try to revive the usual financial system of the Roman Empire. Each Napoleon and Hitler had comparable concepts of a unified Europe. It was Julius Caesar (100- 44 BC) who conquered Europe and, within the course of, created a single language and financial system. Certainly, this silver denarius illustrates his victory over Gaul, displaying an unshaven Gallic barbarian seated on the bottom beneath his trophy.
Julius Caesar achieved the unification of Europe. Nonetheless, it was Napoleon who standardized the financial system post-Rome, which turned the inspiration for the Latin Financial Union by 1865.
Even at Bretton Woods, John Maynard Keynes had proposed creating an overarching “International Clearing Union” that doubtlessly each nation would be part of. This could grow to be the brand new reserve foreign money, referred to as the “BANCOR.” It might be used for settling worldwide accounts. Every member nation would pay a membership quota in proportion to their complete commerce. Nations that have been in surplus would obtain BANCOR credit score, whereas these in deficit would have a damaging account. This proposal was meant to extend commerce. If a rustic moved right into a perpetual deficit, it will be required to devalue to scale back imports. Then again, transfer too far into surplus, and their foreign money can be required to understand to extend imports. Then there would even be a bancor tax levied at a progressive price on anybody with a big commerce imbalance.
The IMF created its SDR which was not the equal to Keynes’ Bancor, but it represents a practical adaptation of some ideas. The Bancor was a visionary proposal for a brand new financial order, whereas the SDR is a technical instrument throughout the current IMF framework. Some have argued that Keynes’ thought ought to be used moderately than tariffs.
Europe remains to be very a lot dwelling underneath mercantilism. Kohl took Germany into the euro, denying the individuals the fitting to vote, as a result of he assumed {that a} single foreign money would improve Germany’s gross sales of merchandise to the remainder of Europe, working underneath mercantilism. The prevailing object underneath mercantilism is to twist mutually useful worldwide commerce to a one-sided benefit. That is the Neoclassical financial view the place economists agreed that the science was settled and that free commerce was protected and efficient towards mercantilism.
Presently, some consider that our commerce deficit is destroying important segments of American trade and eliminating badly wanted jobs. They completely ignore the buyer that protects overpriced labor, which reduces the usual of dwelling for the entire. They argue that that is taking place as a result of now we have embraced free commerce and don’t concentrate.
Keynes wrote in his unique proposal that the fundamental precept is the mandatory equality of credit and debits, of belongings and liabilities. If no credit could be eliminated exterior the clearing system however solely transferred inside it, the Union itself can by no means be in difficulties.”
Bretton Woods operated for some time and was an enchancment on the prewar gold commonplace. Nonetheless, France particularly remained very hostile to Britain and the USA underneath De Gaulle. They envisioned that France would rise to steer the world if it had the gold reserves. France was eagerly shopping for up {dollars} and redeeming them for gold which finally broke the again of all the Bretton Woods financial fastened price system. This throwback to mercantilism and the gold commonplace undermined all the system. In the meantime, no person in Europe understood what made the USA the reserve foreign money was not gold – it was the American client. Germany wanted to see its automobiles to American simply as Japan. So long as the US was the key consumer-based economic system, it needed to worth items in {dollars} to promote them.
Valuation Strategies:
FOB (Free on Board): Worth on the exporter’s port, excluding worldwide delivery/insurance coverage prices.
CIF (Price, Insurance coverage, Freight): Worth on the importer’s port, together with delivery/insurance coverage. This causes discrepancies.
There are totally different valuation strategies to calculate commerce (FOB vs CIF), timing variations (when the transaction is recorded), misclassification, and even smuggling and fraud. For instance, Nation A exports items to Nation B. Nation A data it at FOB worth when it leaves, whereas Nation B data it at CIF when it arrives, resulting in the next import worth in Nation B’s knowledge.
In abstract, calculating commerce numbers entails amassing knowledge from a number of sources (customs, surveys, monetary establishments), standardizing utilizing worldwide programs (HS codes, BoP tips), and coping with discrepancies on account of totally different methodologies or reporting practices. It’s a fancy course of with room for errors and inconsistencies, which worldwide organizations work to mitigate by way of harmonized tips.
Commerce numbers, which measure the circulation of products, providers, and cash between nations, are calculated by way of a mix of knowledge assortment, standardization, and worldwide tips.
Items Commerce Calculation
Information Sources:
Customs Declarations: Import/export values are recorded when items cross borders. Declarations embody product kind, amount, and worth.
Harmonized System (HS Codes): A standardized classification system (6-digit codes) ensures consistency in categorizing items globally.
Challenges:
Misclassification of products underneath HS codes.
Smuggling or underreporting to evade tariffs.
Timing variations (e.g., items in transit at year-end).
Companies Commerce Calculation
Information Sources:
Surveys of companies (e.g., banks, tech corporations) offering cross-border providers.
Monetary data (e.g., royalties, tourism spending, consulting charges).
Classes: Contains tourism, transportation, mental property, and monetary providers.
Challenges:
Intangible nature makes monitoring tougher than items.
Reliance on self-reporting is inherently inconsistent.
Cash Movement (Monetary Account)
Right here we observe cross-border investments and capital actions, recorded within the Stability of Funds (BoP)
Parts:
International Direct Funding (FDI): Lengthy-term investments (e.g., constructing factories).
Portfolio Funding: Brief-term flows (e.g., shares, bonds).
Loans and Banking Flows: Cross-border lending/borrowing.
Reserves: Central financial institution holdings of foreign currency.
Information Sources:
Central banks and monetary establishments report transactions.
Worldwide programs like SWIFT observe cross-border funds.
Challenges:
Illicit flows (e.g., tax evasion, cash laundering) are sometimes unreported.
Change price fluctuations have an effect on valuations.
Worldwide Frameworks
Stability of Funds (IMF Tips):
Present Account: Items, providers, earnings (e.g., dividends), and transfers (e.g., remittances).
Monetary Account: Information investments and loans.
Commerce in Worth-Added (TiVA): OECD/WTO initiative to account for provide chains, avoiding double-counting intermediate items.
Understanding commerce numbers requires recognizing the complexity of worldwide programs and the continued efforts to enhance knowledge accuracy by way of worldwide coordination. I helped the Japanese cut back their commerce surplus by buying gold in New York and sending it to London to be resold. As a result of the kind of items being purchased and shipped is irrelevant, the underside line is that commerce is calculated on cash flows. Beneath the Biden Administration, they seem to have assumed that senile Joe was not all there, and so they took benefit of the state of affairs. We will see the disaster that has led Trump to take motion.
As one reader wrote, after studying the negativity within the NY Occasions and MSNBC, the query that wanted to be answered was: Ought to I commit suicide this week or wait till subsequent week? If Trump stated he would take away all tariffs, they’d then say everybody will lose their jobs from the flood of international items. They’re not sincere journalists. They’re simply propagandists. They don’t care in regards to the nation or the individuals. They only should take the alternative place of Trump, it doesn’t matter what the subject material could be.
They spout the identical Democratic propaganda from the ’30s, claiming that tariffs prompted the Nice Despair. Some 9000 banks failed, and that was brought on by Sovereign debt defaults, not tariffs. I’m sick and bored with the lies. Packages like MSNBC are polarizing the nation and destroying the very basis of the USA based mostly on Marxist propaganda.
The tariff didn’t trigger the financial institution failures. It was the Sovereign Defaults that they tried to omit from the historical past books as a result of they didn’t help their agenda of evil companies, and we want socialism to outlive. Simply as they report nothing however hatred of Trump, Hoover was a Republican, and so they tried to destroy the Republican Social gathering again then too.
Right here we’re over again, and the press reviews nothing however uncooked hatred of Donald Trump, all to help as soon as once more their LEFTIST agenda. They won’t be glad till they utterly destroy the USA and unleash a violatent civil battle.
A prime White Home financial adviser stated on April 6 that greater than 50 nations have contacted the Trump administration to provoke negotiations over a broad swath of tariffs that have been introduced within the first week of April on almost each nation on the earth. Individuals have been shocked that Israel had tariffs on US merchandise after all the things we do for Israel. The listing goes on and on. That is the ONLY approach to attain free commerce.
