QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, we drastically admire your braveness, and it’s obvious that you’ve got contacts that no person else has. You stated China takes 80% of Iran’s oil. I assume they get that by means of the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran had been to close down the Strait of Hormuz, wouldn’t that considerably affect their gross sales to China? You will have defined the Center East higher than anybody I’ve ever learn or watched on TV. Iran warned of “everlasting consequences” after the U.S. bombed three main nuclear websites. I can see what you’re laying out: that that is the start quite than the tip. Do you suppose China or Russia will enter this battle quickly?
Bret
ANSWER: The rationale Iran can assault the Straits of Hormuz is that the media has unreported the completion of the China-Iran railway hyperlink, which is a major milestone inside China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), particularly reviving the traditional Silk Highway by means of fashionable infrastructure. By the best way, the traditional metropolis of Antioch turned so rich as a result of it served as a key hyperlink to the Silk Highway, the place all items entered the Greek and Roman world. The time period assumed the “PURPLE” was related to a Roman emperor as a result of it was a dye from Asia that arrived by way of Antioch. It was decreed that solely the emperor might put on it.
Antioch was the port metropolis in Syria. It was strategic all through historical past. I’ve defined, maybe not in nice element, however China has been reestablishing the traditional Silk Highway. Iran can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and it’ll NOT affect the export of oil to China. The China-Iran railway hyperlink, a part of the broader China-Central Asia-West Asia Financial Hall, primarily depends on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (KTI) Railway as its crucial connector. The settlement was signed between China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, finalizing the KTI Railway settlement in 2013. The development started in December 2014. The primary direct freight practice from China to Iran arrived in Tehran on February 15, 2016.
Now, have a look at this from a geopolitical perspective. You will have the Houthis attacking ships within the Pink Sea. With this rail line, Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis preserve the stress on, stopping the site visitors by means of the Suez Canal. They’ve the flexibility to affect the vitality circulation out of the Center East considerably.
The Shia Muslims don’t management “most” of the oil within the Center East, although they dwell in areas with vital reserves. Management is primarily held by nationwide governments and state-owned firms, not by sects immediately. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia 267 billion barrels (17% od international confirmed reserves)Iran 208 billion barrels (4th largest globally)Iraq 145 billion barrels (fifth largest globally)Kuwait 102 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led monarchyUnited Arab Emirates (UAE) 98 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led federation.Qatar Main fuel producer, additionally has oil. Sunni-led monarchy.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar (all Sunni-led monarchies) maintain a considerably bigger portion of the area’s confirmed oil reserves mixed than Iran and Iraq. Nevertheless, the Shia-Majority Areas are Essential. Iran and southern Iraq (Shia heartland) have huge reserves and are essential producers. Iran is a founding member of OPEC. Whereas management is nationwide, not sectarian, this may be risky in occasions of warfare, as we noticed through the Seventies.
What I consider is critical right here is the railway between China and Iran. The first rail hall connecting China to Iran turned totally operational in recent times. Trains now run repeatedly from varied Chinese language cities (like Yiwu, Xi’an) by means of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, terminating in Tehran. The ultimate part crossing Turkmenistan into Iran was finalized, making the whole route viable. This now facilitates considerably bigger volumes of commerce between Iran and China. China exports electronics, equipment, textiles, and industrial items. Iran exports petrochemicals, minerals, agricultural merchandise (like saffron, pistachios), and doubtlessly extra oil/fuel sooner or later (although sanctions complicate this).
This offers China with a vital overland path to entry Center Japanese markets and assets, decreasing dependence on susceptible sea lanes just like the Strait of Malacca. It additionally presents Iran a significant various commerce hall, mitigating the affect of Western sanctions and decreasing its isolation. Entry to the huge Chinese language market and Eurasian rail community is essential.
Needless to say this has now launched a geopolitical alignment between Iran and China. Each China and Iran are appearing as a counterbalance to US affect within the area. It integrates Iran extra firmly into China’s Eurasian connectivity imaginative and prescient. This railway is now a crucial nationwide safety problem for China.
The US sanctions on Iran stay a major hurdle. Worldwide banks and corporations are cautious of facilitating transactions, limiting the route’s full potential. China makes use of workarounds, however sanctions create friction and danger. They’ve solely additional divided the world economic system, giving the inducement for the institution of BRICS, which has undermined the worldwide economic system as a complete, dividing the world in half, all for the geopolitical instigation of the Neocons.
China has certainly accomplished and operationalized main rail hyperlinks to Iran by way of Central Asia. This represents a transformative achievement for the Belt and Highway Initiative, providing a sooner, land-based commerce artery between East Asia and the Center East. Whereas challenges corresponding to sanctions and logistical hurdles persist, the hyperlink considerably boosts commerce, offers Iran with an financial lifeline, strengthens Sino-Iranian ties, and enhances Eurasian connectivity. It’s a concrete realization of the trendy Silk Highway imaginative and prescient. The Neocons have dominated American overseas coverage, they usually have NEVER given financial coverage a second thought.
I used to be the primary advertiser to assist Invoice Kristol launch The Weekly Commonplace. We took the again cowl each week, till I spotted he was NOT an financial conservative, he was a Neocon. They had been targeted purely on the geopolitical points of redesigning the Center East and defeating Russia and China. I don’t communicate from hypothesis. I had a front-row seat to the plans and targets that by no means took into consideration the worldwide economic system. That is what created BRICS – their vanity. I’ve even attended White Home dinners.
