COMMENT: Marty, it’s disgraceful that folks take your work and situation books pretending it’s their analysis. But it’s much more shameful that Donald Trump isn’t calling you for recommendation as an alternative of those individuals who couldn’t discover the door in a room if the lights went out. You acknowledged clearly that Iran’s nukes have been irrelevant, for Russia, China, or North Korea might place them there simply as Russia did through the Cuban Missile Disaster. Then what? I can see your concern. This isn’t a solvable situation, and it was simply made worse. Your laptop is all the time appropriate.
KW
After I was barely a teen, I used to be climbing a tree and fell. I didn’t get harm from the autumn, however once I fell, I took down a Yellow-Hacket hornet’s nest. Happily, I used to be not too removed from dwelling, and I ran like hell with bees attacking me throughout. I concern that is what we have now simply performed for the Neocons; they solely take a look at what is instantly in entrance of their nostril, with no thought for what comes subsequent. There are sleeper cells in main cities in Europe and the USA. The Neocons suppose that they’ve received, and Iran has no playing cards. They all the time assume they’re superior, but they’ve misplaced each single conflict from Korea, Vietnam, to Afghanistan and Iraq, they usually stated they might win Iraq in 3 weeks or much less, after which invade seven nations.
Whereas the Neocons look solely at their instant goal, they’re INCAPABLE of ever comprehending the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. That is NOT the top, however the starting, and that’s based on our laptop, not my private opinion. I want it have been my opinion, for then we might have a shot at that assertion being unsuitable. We’ve a Panic Cycle in 2026 with regards to worldwide conflict.
President Donald Trump has simply delivered the dream of the Neocons, and he doesn’t even realize it. He wrote on Reality Social:
“There is not another military in the World that could have done this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! …This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR.”
By dropping highly effective bombs on Iran’s nuclear amenities at Fordow and elsewhere, Trump has acquiesced to the behest of Israel, and that was a fateful alternative, for it demonstrated that the USA has chosen sides not merely with Iran. Nonetheless, it’s reverberating behind the veil of the Center East as a one-sided gunboat diplomacy. The rising concern is that the USA could not be capable of deal impartially within the Center East.
Iran’s Sunni neighbours are simply 200 miles away at most. That is properly inside attain of Iran’s short-range missiles. Since Iran’s neighbors are hosts to key US navy bases, there’s a rising concern that they are often dragged into the most important Center East battle. Then some query the loyalty of the USA if the US should select between Israel and the Arab world.
The final time we noticed conflict within the Center East, there was additionally a significant shock and fragmentation of the complete area. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq resulted in irreparable injury to the area, costing the USA $3 trillion. The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE was the following mayhem, which benefited Iran by eradicating their arch enemy Saddam Huesin. The motion by the Neocons infected sectarian tensions in the complete area and led to the beginning of the Sunni jihadist group ISIS.
No matter Iran’s response, America’s overseas coverage is extra intently aligned with Israel’s than it has ever been. As beforehand famous, Netanyahu appears to be calling the photographs with President Trump scrambling to maintain tempo together with his supposedly junior ally, a Neocon via and thru. Now, regardless of years of claiming he would keep away from wars and different overseas entanglements, President Trump has simply guess his whole presidency on a dramatically aggressive act in Iran that does violate worldwide legislation, and there was undoubtedly no declaration of conflict. Trump will now go down in historical past because the American president to ever strike one other nation with bombers with out a formal conflict. At the very least within the Gulf Warfare, the US invoked Article 5 of NATO. President Trump can be the primary to have overtly joined Israel in an assault on an adversary. That may be a extreme situation that historical past is not going to neglect.
Our Nationwide Debt has risen dramatically, all due to the limitless wars of the Neocons. They don’t care in regards to the folks or our nation. All they care about is the destruction of their enemies to fulfill their uncooked hatred. We face sovereign defaults world wide, all due to perpetually borrowing with no intention of ever paying again the debt.
We’re nonetheless paying curiosity on World Warfare I and II, together with Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. This one will likely be many trillions, and it’ll contribute to the collapse of the world financial system post-2030.
We’ve simply entered the Thucydides Lure. This highlights the profound and infrequently perilous instability brought on by a significant shift in international energy, which is what’s now unfolding. The hubris of the USA, in believing it’s invincible, was promoted by the Neocons, simply because it was in historical Athens. This lesson from historical past serves as a stark warning that the pure friction between a rising and ruling energy is a chief historic catalyst for catastrophic battle, emphasizing the important want for skillful statecraft, clear communication, and disaster administration mechanisms to navigate this harmful section peacefully. This lesson from historical past highlights a robust sample that warrants severe consideration, significantly within the context of US-Russia and US-China relations.
Thucydides (c. 460-395 BC) in his seminal work, Historical past of the Peloponnesian Warfare, recognized the basic explanation for the devastating 27-year conflict between Sparta and Athens. He wrote:
“It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
The Lure refers back to the structural stress created by a significant shift within the stability of energy. The established energy (like Sparta) feels threatened by the rising energy’s (like Athens’) rising affect, wealth, and navy capabilities. Concurrently, the rising energy calls for higher recognition, affect, and a job in shaping the system commensurate with its new energy. This mutual concern, suspicion, and rivalry typically result in miscalculation, crises, and in the end, conflict – even when neither facet actively wishes it. Therefore, the pc tasks that WWIII is inevitable.
The Peloponnesian Warfare (431-404BC) was fought between Sparta and Athens, the 2 superpowers of historical Greece on the time. Every was dominant in its personal approach, and the conflict was primarily a conflict between these two giants. Athens resulted in defeat in 404 BC, exactly on schedule with our ECM mannequin.
Sparta and its allies (particularly Thebes) struck the primary blow. Nevertheless, the conflict’s origins contain a long time of stress and particular provocations not in contrast to the connection between the USA, Russia, and China. In early 431 BC, a small power of Thebans (members of the Spartan-led Peloponnesian League) launched a shock night time assault on town of Plataea, a long-standing ally of Athens inside Boeotia (Theban territory). Thebes sought to remove Plataean resistance to Theban dominance over Boeotia, very similar to Israel versus Iran. They sought to deliver Plataean firmly into their sphere. They have been additionally inspired by pro-Theban Plataean residents who opened the gates, not in contrast to Israel’s sympathizers inside Iran.
The preliminary coup try failed. Plataean residents rallied, captured many Thebans, and executed them. This act was a transparent violation of the prevailing Thirty Years’ Peace treaty. This assault by Sparta’s strongest ally is broadly thought-about the primary overt navy motion of the conflict. It gave Athens justification to mobilize and assist Plataea. Town-state of Plataea was positioned in Boeotia. The dominant energy in Boeotia was Thebes, which did situation prolific coinage (that includes the Boeotian protect) because the chief of the Boeotian League. There aren’t any cash issued by Plataea, for they seem to have used the coinage of Thebes.
After the failed Theban assault on Plataea and the execution of the Theban prisoners, Sparta, because the chief of the Peloponnesian League, formally declared conflict on Athens. This declaration adopted failed negotiations during which Sparta demanded that Athens elevate sanctions towards Megara (one other Spartan ally) and successfully cede its empire. This demand would have led to Athens’ empire being surrendered, which might have been a dedicated act of geopolitical suicide. Therefore, it was resoundingly rejected.
So, whereas Thebes struck the primary bodily blow, Sparta, because the chief of the opposing alliance, formally initiated the state of conflict. I ought to level out that Sparta was a Communist State and by no means issued coinage to forestall folks from attaining wealth. Everybody was to supply navy service.
The historian Thucydides, who lived via the conflict, argued that the actual trigger was deeper than any single occasion. This was rooted within the rivalry between the 2 superpowers, not in contrast to immediately, with the USA and Europe on one facet and Russia and China on the opposite. Thucydides wrote in his Historical past of the Peloponnesian Warfare.
“The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable.”
After the Persian Wars, Athens reworked the Delian League (initially a defensive alliance) into an Athenian Empire, utilizing its highly effective navy to dominate different Greek city-states, extract tribute, and intervene of their affairs. It even moved the treasury from Delos to Athens and funded the development of the Parthenon. Athens was primarily a maritime energy.
Sparta, the normal land energy and chief of the extra conservative Peloponnesian League, considered Athens’ rising energy, wealth, and democratic affect with deep suspicion and concern. They noticed it as a elementary menace to their very own safety, lifestyle, and management in Greece.
There had been a civil conflict in Epidamnus, which drew in Corcyra (Corfu) after which Corinth (Sparta’s key ally). Corcyra, not a part of both league, appealed to Athens for assist towards Corinth. Athens made a defensive alliance with Corcyra and despatched ships, which fought towards Corinthian ships on the Battle of Sybota (433 BC). This instantly concerned Athens in a battle towards a significant Spartan ally, heightening Spartan fears of Athenian expansionism. That is what Trump simply did by attacking Iran, an ally of each Russia and China.
The Potidaea Revolt (432-429 BC), which was a Corinthian colony, but in addition a tribute-paying member of the Athenian Empire, revolted with encouragement from Corinth and Sparta. Athens besieged Potidaea. Corinthian troops fought alongside the Potidaeans towards the Athenians. This created one other direct navy conflict between Athens and a key Spartan ally (Corinth), additional straining relations and giving Sparta’s allies robust grievances towards Athens.
Athens banned Megara in 432BC (a Spartan ally strategically positioned close to Athens) from the ports and markets of the Athenian Empire, crippling its financial system. This was not in contrast to the concept of the Neocons imposing sanctions on Iran. Sparta strongly protested this as a violation of the Thirty Years’ Peace and used it as a key justification for conflict. This financial sanction was seen as significantly harsh and aggressive, offering Sparta with a particular casus belli and rallying assist amongst its allies who feared related remedy. That is my concern in regards to the assault on Iran that may be seen as non secular.
The elemental trigger, as Thucydides argued, was Sparta’s deep-seated concern of Athens’ rising energy and imperial ambitions, which made a significant battle appear inevitable to them. Due to this fact, whereas Sparta formally declared conflict, the aggressive actions of its ally Thebes offered the instant spark, and a long time of Athenian enlargement created the tinderbox. The Peloponnesian Warfare started with Sparta and its allies taking the offensive towards Athens and its empire. That is similar to Israel’s assault on Iran, akin to Thebes’ assault on Plataea, which may then draw within the superpowers – USA, Russia, and China.
The probability of Iran surrendering is ZERO. The Neocons have, as all the time, judged their goal by what they suppose quite than the pondering technique of their goal. They’ve portrayed Trump as a warring president, but he, too, thought one strike would finish the conflict, listening to the identical individuals who stated they may win Vietnam and Iraq would fall in 3 weeks. Like Adam Kinzinger, who boasted that we might defeat Russia in 3 days. They discuss to one another and imagine their very own BS and pat one another on the again for his or her brilliance.
Iran’s defiant leaders fired 40 missiles at Israel on Sunday. As anticipated, the Neocons by no means perceive their adversary – NEVER! Iran now will really feel that nearly any motion is justified if they’re to create weapons to discourage future assaults. They might most definitely urge their allies to offer them nukes. In the event you perceive the background of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, you’ll instantly comprehend that he’ll give little or no credence to Mr Trump’s declare this weekend that the bombs have “obliterated” the nuclear programme and that Iran ought to give up. Iran’s nuclear undertaking is broadly dispersed in order that the destruction of 1 doesn’t finish their program. It was designed to anticipate an assault and to outlive.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s background is that of a revolutionary cleric who rose via the ranks of the opposition to the Shah, grew to become a key lieutenant to Khomeini, held excessive workplace through the Iran-Iraq Warfare, and was chosen as Supreme Chief primarily for his political loyalty and expertise inside the system, regardless of preliminary questions on his non secular credentials. His tenure has been characterised by consolidating theocratic management, resisting Western affect, and upholding the core ideas of the Islamic Revolution. He no extra cares about Iran as a rustic than the Neocons care about the USA or Europe. They’re all motivated by their resolve, if not hatred, of their opponents.
Khamenei grew to become an lively opponent of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime within the Nineteen Sixties and Seventies. His activism led to a number of arrests and durations of imprisonment by the Shah’s secret police (SAVAK) all through the Nineteen Sixties and 70s. He was additionally tortured throughout this time. I defined that when Trump was shot, folks have been saying he would now reverse his rhetoric. I stated no, while you face a near-death try in your life, you LOSE all sense of any concern of loss of life. You might have extra resolve and notice that they tried to kill you since you are proper.
During times of freedom and exile inside Iran (together with in Mashhad and Kirman), Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continued organizing opposition, translating revolutionary texts (like works by Sayyid Qutb), preaching towards the Shah, and constructing networks essential to the revolution.
Upon the loss of life of Ayatollah Khomeini in June 1989, the Meeting of Consultants confronted the important activity of choosing a brand new Supreme Chief. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whereas a senior determine and President, was not thought-about a top-ranking non secular authority (Marja’) on the time. His theological credentials have been decrease than these of different potential candidates. Nevertheless, attributable to his confirmed loyalty to Khomeini and the revolution, his political expertise, his organizational expertise inside the clerical institution, and certain the backing of highly effective networks inside the IRGC and IRP, he was chosen as the brand new Supreme Chief. To handle the problem of his non secular rank, he was rapidly promoted to the rank of Ayatollah (and later Grand Ayatollah/Marja’), although this stays some extent of rivalry amongst some conventional Shi’a clergy exterior Iran.
As Supreme Chief, Khamenei has systematically consolidated energy over the navy (particularly the IRGC), the judiciary, the media, and key financial sectors. He has final authority over all branches of presidency and key state establishments. A staunch advocate of Khomeini’s doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), his resistance to Western (particularly US) affect, Islamic unity, technological development, and assist for “oppressed” teams, such because the Palestinians, in the end prevailed. The Neocons clearly fail to know their goal. These Neocons consistently make each single mistake pushed by their fanaticism, no completely different than they discuss in regards to the Islamic terrorists. Each imagine solely of their myopic view of the opposite.
The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES that these Neocons have once more neglected are the fact that this assault will under no circumstances finish this conflict, and Iran is not going to give up. It will result in terrorist assaults and civil unrest in Europe. As all the time, these Neocons solely take a look at their private hatred and by no means care in regards to the folks or the nation.
