We’re again. From Monday, MPs will stream below the portcullis again into the Commons chamber. However that is removed from an easy autumn, with risks for all of the leaders lurking in all places.
On the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast, launched every morning at 7.45am, Anne McElvoy and I give the primary information of the day to what’s arising.
To get you again within the temper, hearken to our back-to-school episode and our “summer box set” deep dives on key points, and hear day by day from Monday.
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Listed here are 30, no much less, issues to look out for the autumn, explaining why you’ll be able to’t tune out from what guarantees to be a really thrilling time period.
1. Regardless of agency Downing Road denials earlier than the summer season that this might occur now, there’s extremely more likely to be a ministerial reset subsequent week.
2. Though the cupboard is more likely to be protected, and other people like Bridget Phillipson got private ensures from Sir Keir Starmer that they’re going nowhere, some in Quantity 10 have been pushing that the whips must be included within the reshuffle after the welfare vote disaster earlier than the summer season.
3. Discover out the very newest after we return correctly on Monday, Politics at Sam and Anne’s – again day by day, in your feeds from 7.30am.
4. And it is going to be a very good one, since everybody expects it to be a “revenge” reshuffle – among the many targets are regarded as some ministers actively believed to have been serving to the welfare revolt, and loyalists wish to see them sacked.
“Loyalists called Josh” will probably be promoted, stated one aide, waspishly.
5. Having redeployed the Quantity 10 principal personal secretary, the official who helps filter recommendation to Sir Keir, this important position is now anticipated to be crammed by Dan York Smith, a longtime Treasury aide.
This issues as a result of for a few years, this Treasury official was in control of the price range course of and subsequently labored on tax coverage. So, Quantity 10 can not faux it does not have the experience within the run-up to the price range.
6. Certainly, the date of the price range would possibly come subsequent week. The Workplace for Funds Duty (OBR) wants a minimum of 10 weeks’ discover.
By my calculations, that would appear to take us to the second week of November, simply previous half time period. This is hoping there isn’t any conflict.
7. You possibly can hear extra about Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ challenges within the price range in an economics and Treasury particular of the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast that includes Ed Conway, a part of our summer season deep dive into key points dealing with the federal government.
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8. The OBR’s twice-yearly assessments have become hideous trials for Reeves, since she repeatedly determined to borrow so near tight self-imposed limits.
Reeves may determine this autumn to maneuver from two to at least one OBR assessments a 12 months – in case you do not ask the query, you’ll be able to’t get a nasty reply.
9. At the beginning of the summer season, economists have been suggesting the OBR would say on the November price range that there’s a £20-30bn black gap to satisfy her fiscal guidelines. Over the summer season, that appears to have prolonged to £40-50bn. Fortunately for ministers, no one is aware of – but.
10. The Treasury has adopted a place of refusing to close down any concept being floated to lift cash within the price range. Due to this fact, EVERY concept is being handled with equal prominence and horror.
Whether or not or not individuals – eg home movers – begin adjusting behaviour due to the hypothesis.
11. First quote to bookmark, Rachel Reeves in response to ideas that the reply is a wealth tax on 1 August: “In the budget last year, we got rid of the non-domicile status in our tax system, so people who make Britain their home have to pay their taxes here.
“We elevated taxes on personal jets, on second properties, and elevated capital positive aspects tax (CGT), so I feel we have the steadiness proper by way of how we tax these with the broadest shoulders.”
12. Second quote to bookmark: After the Tories suggested Labour might scrap the capital gains tax exemption on primary residences before the election, Sir Keir said in June 2024 that he could “completely” guarantee that they would not.
“This was only a determined story by the Tories in relation to capital positive aspects tax on main residences,” he said, adding: “There was by no means a coverage so it does not want ruling out, however let’s rule it out in case anyone pretends that it was.”
A Labour spokesman went further, saying that Labour would not put CGT on primary residences and said: “It is a dangerous concept.” Put this point in your favourites.
The Labour figure is their lowest so far this parliament (and indeed, lowest since 2019).
14. The conference season hits with a bang. Next Friday and Saturday is Reform UK in Birmingham, 5 and 6 September. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) is the following week, Sunday 7 to Wednesday 10 September.
Labour conference begins the following Sunday – the 27th – in Liverpool, Greens on 3 October and Tories begin on 5 October in Manchester.
15. There will be extra episodes of Politics at Sam and Anne’s over the conference season. We are going to do Sunday lunchtime episodes at Labour and Tories, since everyone’s weeks start a day earlier.
There’ll be quick turnaround episodes after the key speeches. Make sure you keep coming back to our podcast feed.
16. Of all the different conferences, the Tories’ feels like it could be the most consequential. It’s Kemi Badenoch’s first as leader – the leadership contest was underway last time.
She’s likely to announce a policy of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and pausing the various refugee conventions signed after the Second World War, although Nigel Farage has stolen her thunder.
Even front benchers were unimpressed with her “wasted” summer – talking about her loss of faith rather than hammering Labour and Reform UK on the economy. It needs to go well for her.
17. And in the middle of this is Donald Trump’s state visit from 17 September to 19 September, while the UN General Assembly (which may have Angela Rayner rather than Sir Keir attending) is 23-27 September, and the European Political Community is in Budapest on 2 October. The Commons is back after conference season on 13 October – which feels late.
18. Migration, asylum and deportation have dominated the summer. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper did manage a holiday – but has lots to do.
Asylum seekers who are refused sanctuary in Britain are seeing their appeals take an average of 54 weeks to be heard.
There were 50,976 outstanding appeals as of March, which is almost double the number compared with 2024, and seven times higher than in 2023 on top of the almost 79,000 asylum claims awaiting an initial decision.
As of March, there were a total of 106,771 asylum seekers in receipt of taxpayer-funded support, including 32,345 in hotels. Asylum seekers received this support for an average of 413 days.
Taxpayers coughed up £3.1bn for hotel accommodation for asylum seekers in 2023-24, which equated to about £8m a day. Phew.
19. Some of the migrants detained before deportation to France are appealing on human rights grounds, delaying the first individuals going back.
Separately, the Home Office is waiting for the outcome of its appeal against Epping Forest District Council after the High Court ruled that migrants must be removed from the Bell Hotel after the council claimed it had become a “feeding floor for unrest”.
Lastly, the Dwelling Workplace is ready for the French authorities to alter maritime legislation to empower French police to deal with migrants within the Channel, however the authorities might collapse earlier than it will probably.
20. Whereas Reform UK has pledged to go away the ECHR and the Tories are more likely to comply with go well with at convention, Labour strikes are rather more restricted. Yvette Cooper is reviewing Article 3 (privateness) and Article 8 (household life). Will we hear the result of that at Labour convention?
21. Additionally this autumn, from the Dwelling Workplace, you are going to see two different huge issues. There’s the (delayed) technique to halve violence in opposition to ladies and women. There wasn’t a lot cash for this extraordinarily bold goal within the spending overview, however charities are nonetheless being advised to suppose huge.
22. There’s additionally going to be a police white paper. This must generate a reform plan, which might type a part of a pitch to the Treasury for extra money for policing within the price range. May this embrace drive consolidation? Not but clear.
23. You possibly can hear extra about all of the challenges in house affairs with veteran house affairs journalist and one-time Labour adviser Danny Shaw on a Politics at Sam and Anne’s particular. Shaw is way from clear that the French plan will work as a deterrent, and factors out that the remainder of the EU has to conform to make the plan everlasting.
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24. French President Emmanuel Macron will recognise a Palestinian state on 24 September, simply after Donald Trump’s departure from the UK after a state go to.
Officers imagine Sir Keir will maintain true to his pre-summer ultimatum to Israel and recognise a Palestinian state on the similar time – however the politics of that is difficult and can put him at odds with Trump in the course of the state go to.
25. US community CBS has reported that the US has stopped sharing Ukraine intelligence with the 5 Eyes community, together with Britain. This will probably be excessive on the agenda for the state go to when Sir Keir meets Trump.
US Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated in a memo that every one data on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations be withheld from US allies, and talks have been reportedly classed as “NOFORN” by US intelligence, which means no international dissemination. Gabbard subsequently denied this.
There is a “common understanding” however no last choice on the EU aspect. EU relations minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, who’s main on this, thinks he can full negotiations by 2027. Will he succeed?
27. Well being Secretary Wes Streeting had a greater summer season than most. He received the 10-year NHS plan out of the door pre-summer, though the NHS funds stay in a horrible state.
However he managed a minimum of to pause the resident (junior) docs’ strikes. Whereas there is not a decision, it is a begin. Can he comply with by means of?
28. Training Secretary Bridget Phillipson has a a lot trickier autumn forward. She is going to oversee reform of Particular Academic Wants and Disabilities (SEND) which – if mishandled – may result in the largest conflict with Labour MPs because the welfare revolt.
It could not – however we’ve not heard a lot element or pitch rolling. They wish to “tilt (special needs) back to the mainstream” – with Canada as a mannequin. It is “going to take years”, and there’s no in a single day repair, I am advised. However that is delicate and MPs are nervous.
There’s additionally a wider white paper that seeks to spice up extra-curricular actions, and Phillipson will proceed her give attention to early years, though nursery funding stays a contentious space.
29. …deep breath. There’s additionally a curriculum overview, searching for to embed “oracy, criticality and digital skills”, whereas the delayed new Ofsted grading system is available in.
Additionally, they’re engaged on learn how to enhance college funding sustainability – which feels like annual inflation will increase in tuition charges.
30. Will the Lords kill the Assisted Dying Invoice? This may come down firstly to arcane guidelines on timing within the Lords. There are two sitting Fridays a month.
However then, even when it manages to go the Lords, there are at present no additional sitting Fridays within the Commons scheduled for this session, so the federal government will come below stress to placed on some extras – however have stated they will not intervene to offer it extra time.
One senior authorities determine (who backs it) advised me they thought the probabilities of it passing are worse than 50/50.
