A Year After Capitol Riot, Trump’s Hold on G.O.P. Is Unrivaled

After effectively shutting down his campaign finance operation following the Capitol riot, Mr. Trump fired it back up the day of his speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference. He raised nearly $3.5 million online that day, federal records show — a one-day haul not approached by any G.O.P. politician or committee in the first half of 2021.

The money is as powerful a measure of his influence as his polling.

By early summer, Mr. Trump was almost single-handedly matching the entire Republican Party apparatus online. The R.N.C., plus the House and Senate campaign committees, raised a combined $2.34 million online in the last five days of June. Mr. Trump’s committees raised $2.29 million.

The party continues to rely heavily on pro-Trump messages to motivate online supporters. The R.N.C., meanwhile, has agreed to foot up to $1.6 million of Mr. Trump’s personal legal bills.

The events of Jan. 6 have not been without consequences for Mr. Trump. The former president initially planned to hold a news conference on the anniversary, but abruptly withdrew on Tuesday on the advice of allies and advisers that it would backfire.

And while Mr. Trump remains popular with Republicans, recent 2024 primary polls show potential vulnerability, even as he now outpaces the field handily. In a sign of fatigue even among his supporters, a notable share of Republicans say they would prefer he not run again, as many as 40 percent in a Marquette Law School Poll in November. That survey also showed 73 percent of independents prefer he not run.

Some Republicans, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has consistently polled a distant second to Mr. Trump, have avoided saying whether they would not run if Mr. Trump does.

Others, most notably Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, have said Mr. Trump’s decision will not affect their own. Mr. Christie, a former adviser who broke with Mr. Trump after Jan. 6, has emerged as one of the few prominent Republicans pushing back on Mr. Trump’s deceptions about the 2020 election.