In 1645, the stronghold of Caerphilly’s well-known medieval citadel was besieged and captured by the forces of Oliver Cromwell.
And because the polls closed at 10pm after a bruising by-election battle, the Labour stronghold of Caerphilly was in grave hazard of being captured by the forces of Nigel Farage and Reform UK in 2025.
Well-known for the three Cs of coal, cheese and its citadel, Caerphilly has been represented at Westminster by Labour MPs for greater than a century and in Cardiff since 1999, when the Welsh Meeting was created.
That is about to vary. Labour’s vote – as soon as as impregnable because the citadel – has crumbled like Caerphilly cheese, and the Tories, Lib Dems and Inexperienced Social gathering are nowhere.
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Pic PA
However Reform’s UK hopes of a well-known victory in Caerphilly might be dashed by one other political get together hopeful of creating an enormous breakthrough in Wales, Plaid Cymru, second to Labour in final 12 months’s normal election and in each election for the Senedd since devolution.
As he arrived on the depend at Caerphilly Leisure Centre shortly earlier than the polls closed, Plaid Cymru’s veteran candidate, Lindsay Whittle, 72, was remarkably cheerful. Requested if he was going to win, he declared, punching the air: “I certainly hope so!”
An opinion ballot within the constituency final week put assist for Reform UK at 42%, Plaid Cymru 38%, Labour a dismal 12%, the Conservatives in misplaced deposit territory at 4%, together with the Greens at 3% and the Lib Dems barely registering at 1%.
In contrast to Cromwell’s forces, who arrived in Caerphilly on horseback practically 400 years in the past, Mr Farage galloped into the constituency on polling day in a quick automobile, in what was his third go to of the by-election marketing campaign to the constituency.
A victory for Mr Farage’s candidate, 30-year-old Llyr Powell, would go away Reform UK on the highway to additional triumphs and have an effect on UK politics far past the Welsh Valleys. It will be a pointer to large Reform UK good points in native, Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections subsequent 12 months.
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Pic: PA
It will flip the temper of Labour MPs from its present gloom and trepidation into blind panic and would persuade them – in the event that they weren’t satisfied already – that Mr Farage is on the march to Downing Road and most of the 2024 Labour consumption will lose their seats on the subsequent normal election.
However let’s not rule out a Plaid victory. That will ship shockwaves all through Wales and be seen as a transparent sign that Labour’s 26-year dominance of the Welsh authorities is about to return to an undignified finish.
The one certainties tonight are humiliation for Labour and near-wipeout for the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
The one uncertainty is whether or not it is Reform UK or Plaid Cymru whose troops – like Cromwell’s in 1645 – seize Labour’s Caerphilly stronghold.
