We collect cookies to analyze our website traffic and performance; we never collect any personal data.Cookies Policy
Accept
Michigan Post
Search
  • Home
  • Trending
  • Michigan
  • World
  • Politics
  • Top Story
  • Business
    • Business
    • Economics
    • Real Estate
    • Startups
    • Autos
    • Crypto & Web 3
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
    • Lifestyle
    • Food
    • Beauty
    • Art & Books
  • Health
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • Education
Reading: CHART: Crypto election markets and polls present very completely different odds
Share
Font ResizerAa
Michigan PostMichigan Post
Search
  • Home
  • Trending
  • Michigan
  • World
  • Politics
  • Top Story
  • Business
    • Business
    • Economics
    • Real Estate
    • Startups
    • Autos
    • Crypto & Web 3
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
    • Lifestyle
    • Food
    • Beauty
    • Art & Books
  • Health
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
  • Education
© 2024 | The Michigan Post | All Rights Reserved.
Michigan Post > Blog > Crypto & Web 3 > CHART: Crypto election markets and polls present very completely different odds
Crypto & Web 3

CHART: Crypto election markets and polls present very completely different odds

By Editorial Board Published October 29, 2024 4 Min Read
Share
CHART: Crypto election markets and polls present very completely different odds

A curious phenomenon within the crypto trade is affecting media protection of the US presidential election. For 4 weeks, prediction markets that settle for crypto bets like Polymarket and Kalshi have broadcasted decisive and strengthening odds for Donald Trump forward of Kamala Harris.

Nonetheless, many conventional polls show tighter or Harris-favoring odds over the identical time interval.

Protos has created a side-by-side comparability of election odds on Polymarket and Kalshi versus New York Occasions (NYT) and Nate Silver since October 1. Their divergence is unmistakable.

Click on to enlarge.

Is that this 12 months’s new crop of ‘real money at stake’ prediction markets offering the media with a extra correct prediction of the November 5 election? Or are these thinly traded and principally offshore markets simply swayed by pseudonymous merchants with a couple of million {dollars}?

Landslide or sub-1% odds, relying on the quotation

Trump has actually gone out of his option to courtroom crypto voters. He spoke on the largest Bitcoin convention, owns a Casascius bitcoin, hosted a dinner for NFT patrons, and promised to “keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin.”

He has additionally promised to increase clemency to Ross Ulbricht and rename bitcoin seized by the US authorities the “strategic national bitcoin stockpile.”

Harris, for her half, has hesitated to remark a lot on the crypto trade, promising usually to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets.” A few of her employees communicate positively about her intentions, and he or she has particularly promised to “protect cryptocurrency investments so black men who make them know their money is safe.”

In all, it’s simple to see why Trump is favored amongst crypto voters. Their cash has flowed onto prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi and boosted Trump’s favor far past nationwide polling averages.

Media, in flip, often cite these crypto-influenced election odds as a supposed quotation of Trump’s rising lead over Harris during the last 4 weeks. 

Nonetheless, these crypto-friendly platforms have solely meaningfully existed for this election. Averages from conventional pollsters akin to Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight present tight odds inside a couple of foundation factors.

Actual crypto at stake, or washed round for election odds media?

On crypto-friendly Polymarket and Kalshi, Trump has a 66.3% and 62% likelihood of profitable, respectively. Distinction these figures with conventional polling averages. Nate Silver exhibits 47.5%, NYT exhibits 48%, The Hill exhibits 48%, and FiveThirtyEight exhibits 46.7%.

Though Polymarket has gained a disproportionate share of US media consideration regardless of its alleged ban of US customers, crypto will not be distinctive in its prediction that Trump will win the 2024 election. Sure non-crypto publications like Economist and Fox favor Trump.

Most conventional polls are evenly break up, with out sufficient margin of error to forecast the end result.

Luckily, disagreement over electoral outcomes is a purposeful function of American democracy. This 12 months, crypto prediction markets allow teams of merchants to gamble tens of millions and earn media consideration for his or her bets. Conventional polls have a definite methodology.

In any case, the precise outcomes of the election will turn into sure no sooner than the night of November 5.

TAGGED:CHARTCryptoelectionMarketsoddspollsshow
Share This Article
Facebook Twitter Email Copy Link Print

HOT NEWS

Christian B: Freed suspect in Madeleine McCann case makes an attempt to confront prosecutor

Christian B: Freed suspect in Madeleine McCann case makes an attempt to confront prosecutor

World
September 29, 2025
Burwick Regulation needs Jito Labs dropped from Pump Enjoyable lawsuit

Burwick Regulation needs Jito Labs dropped from Pump Enjoyable lawsuit

Jito Labs and two of its execs are to be dropped from Burwick Regulation’s Pump…

September 29, 2025
Electronic mail To Congress | Economics

Electronic mail To Congress | Economics

(1) We must always get out of NATO, they are going to do a false…

September 29, 2025
‘Are you watching, Donald Trump?’: US president responds to Workforce Europe’s Ryder Cup taunt

‘Are you watching, Donald Trump?’: US president responds to Workforce Europe’s Ryder Cup taunt

Donald Trump has responded to a taunting video message from the celebrating Europe Ryder Cup…

September 29, 2025
Years of hype however nonetheless no deal: SWIFT sidesteps XRP once more

Years of hype however nonetheless no deal: SWIFT sidesteps XRP once more

XRP followers had been dissatisfied this weekend when transnational banking large SWIFT selected Linea, an…

September 29, 2025

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

London mayor Sadiq Khan hits out at ‘misinformation’ as new figures present fall in crimes

Sadiq Khan has hit again at politicians "spreading misinformation" about security in London as new information exhibits the variety of…

Politics
September 29, 2025

Greater than half of Labour members are not looking for Starmer to steer celebration into subsequent normal election – ballot

Greater than half of Labour members are not looking for Sir Keir Starmer to battle the following normal election as…

Politics
September 28, 2025

Jimmy Kimmel’s present again on Sinclair and Nexstar because of viewer suggestions

Jimmy Kimmel's late-night speak present will return to ABC associates belonging to Sinclair and Nexstar after the 2 main community…

Entertainment
September 27, 2025

Justin Solar owns extra TRX than everybody else mixed, report

Bloomberg has printed details about Justin Solar’s holding of tronix (TRX) tokens, revealing that he controls roughly 63% of all…

Crypto & Web 3
September 26, 2025

Welcome to Michigan Post, an esteemed publication of the Enspirers News Group. As a beacon of excellence in journalism, Michigan Post is committed to delivering unfiltered and comprehensive news coverage on World News, Politics, Business, Tech, and beyond.

Company

  • About Us
  • Newsroom Policies & Standards
  • Diversity & Inclusion
  • Careers
  • Media & Community Relations
  • Accessibility Statement

Contact Us

  • Contact Us
  • Contact Customer Care
  • Advertise
  • Licensing & Syndication
  • Request a Correction
  • Contact the Newsroom
  • Send a News Tip
  • Report a Vulnerability

Term of Use

  • Digital Products Terms of Sale
  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Settings
  • Submissions & Discussion Policy
  • RSS Terms of Service
  • Ad Choices

© 2024 | The Michigan Post | All Rights Reserved

Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?