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Michigan Post > Blog > Economics > European Outlook & German Elections | Economics
Economics

European Outlook & German Elections | Economics

By Editorial Board Last updated: January 31, 2025 6 Min Read
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European Outlook & German Elections | Economics

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, thanks as a result of you’re the lone voice calling to us in Europe, the place free speech is dying shortly. Others are afraid to say what you level out, even when they see it themselves. Some attempt to dismiss you however by no means deal with what you say, solely who you’re.

Many people in Europe vastly respect your braveness and independence. You can be remembered by historical past when this all involves an finish.

RVH

REPLY: Thanks. I realized again in 1985 after I went to lunch with one of many heads of a significant financial institution in Geneva. He defined to me again then why everybody was utilizing my agency. He mentioned you don’t care if the greenback goes up or down. He defined there have been no European FX analysts as a result of it was a political concern in Europe since politicians used the rise within the forex to validate their efficiency. Saying the forex would decline turned a political assertion.

Euro Over the Edge

At this time, if an analyst at a significant financial institution mentioned the euro would crash, the ECB could be on the telephone instructing that establishment to fireplace them. That was defined to me again in 1985. It has solely progressed since then, and now it’s changing into felony to easily oppose the federal government underneath the label of far-right or hate speech. An AfD victory will assist to push the euro over the sting and threaten the WOKE agenda of the EU management.

Estonia’s financial system was booming, however after a number of years of GDP development at or near 10%, the enlargement fee collapsed and prompted a unfavorable contraction. The 2007-2010 financial recession was not such a smooth touchdown. The sharp slowdown within the Estonian financial system that started in 2007 is now plain. They jailed an economist for saying it could flip down. If I went to London as we speak, Starmer would most likely throw me in jail for one thing I mentioned 10 years in the past.

Capital Controls

That is merely a mirrored image that the financial system is popping down, and the Sovereign Debt Disaster is beginning to come to a head. Trump at the least understands debt. He could also be referred to as many names, however the concern will come to gentle, and he at the least comprehends a debt disaster, whereas our legislators assume that is how they run the federal government, and somebody will at all times purchase their debt. After they can’t promote the brand new debt to repay the outdated, every little thing will come crashing down. That is beginning to come to a head this 12 months, going into 2026. They’ll impose capital controls in Europe. They’re making an attempt speech controls first.

German Bund Y 1 30 25

Olaf Scholz assumed workplace in December 2021. Simply have a look at the German bond market. It went right into a panic decline in 2022. Europe goes to have a debt disaster actually starting to floor subsequent 12 months. However an increasing number of individuals are going to take discover this 12 months.

 

 

The polls nonetheless present that the Union (CDU/CSU) is main with a mean of 30%, whereas the second strongest is the AfD, working about 21%. The subsequent election will probably be on February twenty third, 2025.

German Bund W Array 1 30 25

We will see that we do have a Panic Cycle the week main into the election that weekend. Then, there’s choppiness for the next 3 weeks with a string of Directional Adjustments.

 

 

Alice Weidel of the AFD delivered a speech that hit dwelling in Germany, exposing Scholz and his left-green authoritarian seizure of Germany. She defined that whereas migrants have been attacking our folks, Scholz had tried to silence the opposition and had even tried to ban the AfD. She mentioned: “Someone who thinks so authoritarian should not be the Chancellor of Germany.”

IBEUUS M Array 1 30 2025

We present a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle due in February that traces up with the German election. An AfD victory can ship the greenback larger and begin to unwind the Euro. It’s now 26 years because the start of the euro. Cyclically, that is simply time for the stress to emerge since it’s unlikely that the euro will nonetheless exist by 2030 – 31 years from its creation.

TAGGED:ArmstrongEconomicsElectionsEuropeanGermanOutlook
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