Between 2009 and 2014, Sir John Sawers was often called “C” – the top of MI6.
In lower than a fortnight, the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) has managed to overturn a regime that has held energy for greater than 50 years.
Sir John lived in Syria within the Nineteen Eighties and mentioned he noticed the oppression from the Assad regime “with my own eyes”.
Will there be a peaceable switch of energy?
“It’s encouraging, I think, that the outgoing prime minister has stayed behind to have some form of orderly transition of power,” Sir John mentioned.
Rebels don’t look to be “seeking vengeance” on any teams, he added – though there will likely be “some accounting” for the “terrible brutality” of the Assad regime. “There’s going to be some settling of scores at some point.”
The Assad regime solely represented a “15% minority sect” of the nation, he mentioned.
“A hard task lies ahead now to try to pull the country together.”
There are not any traditions of democracy, however slightly armed teams as an alternative of political teams and items, he mentioned.
“I think the Turks will play a crucial role in trying to bring these various groupings together to form a single, coherent, new regime.”
Will the collapse have been a shock to the UK and its intelligence providers?
“I think it was a surprise to everyone – it probably came as a surprise to [HTS],” Sir John mentioned. “I don’t think they expected to go so far, so fast.
“I feel we’re all stunned at how the regime forces have simply utterly collapsed – even these most loyal to the regime and closest to the regime.
“So, yes, it is a surprise. It’s not a failure of intelligence. It’s a surprise to everyone.”
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9:30
‘Shock’ at how briskly regime fell
Ought to we be cautious about an al Qaeda affiliate taking on?
Sir John mentioned: “When I was chief of MI6, we looked at all these Syrian opposition groups and classified them into those we could support and those who were beyond the pale and too close to al Qaeda. And [HTS] was definitely in the latter category.
“However I feel Abu Mohammed al Jolani, the chief, has made nice efforts over the past 10 years to distance himself from these terrorist teams.
“And certainly the actions we’ve seen of HTS over the last two weeks have been those of a liberation movement, not of a terrorist organisation.”
Ought to HTS keep on the proscription record?
Sir John mentioned: “I think the home secretary will be asking MI5 and the Joint Terrorism Assessment Centre for review of the situation about [HTS] and whether it should remain on the proscribed entity list.
“It might be slightly ridiculous, truly, if we’re unable to interact with the brand new management in Syria due to a proscription relationship again 12 years.”
There’s a “new actuality” in Syria now, he added.
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5:26
Fall of Assad creates safety vacuum
Did Turkey have a hand on this?
“Turkey certainly has a close interest in this,” Sir John mentioned, regardless of Turkey and HTS not having the closest relationship “in terms of co-operation and training and supply”.
“I think things have moved in a very favourable direction for Turkey,” he added.
“And I think they will be the most interesting and influential country in the region now as the various opposition groups come together to try to have a consensus about how a new regime comes into play.”
Picture:
Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, with Bashar al Assad in 2010. Pic: Reuters
What concerning the Russians?
The Russians “may have a role here”, Sir John believes.
“They have a major naval base and intelligence collection base at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast of Syria.
“And they’ll wish to maintain on to these services, which suggests they’ve to return to phrases with the brand new group, new powers in Syria.
“But of course, they’ve been instrumental in keeping the repressive Assad regime in power.”
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Russia has a naval base in Tartus, on the Mediterranan coast of Syria. Pic: AP
And Iran?
“I think Iran will be watching this with great nervousness, great anxiety,” Sir John mentioned. “The events of the last week or so in Syria are exactly what the Iranian regime fears could happen in Iran at some point.”
Iran is extra “sophisticated” as a state, he mentioned – however it’s “still a minority regime with limited consent”, which has led to unrest in latest many years.
The previous spy chief mentioned Iran “seems to be pulling back” from Syria, having been weakened by Israeli airstrikes on the defences of Iranian nuclear services.
“So I think they’re feeling vulnerable, Iran. I think it’s very unlikely they’re going to play an assertive role and I’m quite encouraged by the fact that the Iranians do seem to be willing to re-engage with Europeans, with Americans.”
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0:48
Syrians inside presidential palace
What’s Israel considering?
“For Israel, they’re watching carefully,” Sir John mentioned.
The Golan Heights area, which is between Syria and Israel, has been “actually quite quiet” for the previous 50 years, he mentioned – which means they have not had points on that border.
Nevertheless, Israel “will be nervous” concerning the battle.
There was an “implicit understanding” between Israel and Russia, Sir John added, with Russia guaranteeing Syria wouldn’t assault Israel via the Golan Heights.
In return, “the Israelis have done nothing to undermine the Syrian regime”.
The previous intelligence boss mentioned it was a “sort of dirty, unwritten deal” between Israel and Russia.
He mentioned there’ll now be planning beneath means in Israel for the potential “worst case scenario” of Syria “breaking up into smaller units, with armed groups who could well turn that fire on Israel at some point”.
That is “less likely” though “certainly not impossible”, he mentioned.
“I think the Israelis are going to have to come to terms with Turkey on this, because Turkey is going to be the main power broker.”
Is the state of affairs just like Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya?
Sir John mentioned Libya is the “most apposite” comparability, however continues to be a “bad” one.
It is because the nation is “divided between different groups” – with the vast majority of Syrians being Sunnis who’ve been oppressed.
“I think there’s a good opportunity for them to come together and have a new government, a new constitution, a new dispensation there,” the previous MI6 boss added.
“Yes, there will be a very difficult time ahead, and there could well be elements of the old regime, as we saw in Iraq in the 2000s, elements of the old regime, the fighters who are rear guarding the insurgency in the Alawite heartland in the northwest of Syria – I hope that doesn’t happen.”
