Ask individuals to foretell the outcome on this weekend’s parliamentary election in Georgia, and you’ll get an “absolutely no idea” or a “totally up in the air” coming straight again at you.
Which is unusual when you think about the truth that the matter earlier than the voters on this small however strategically very important nation goes to the very root of what it means to be a Georgian.
Right here is the query – are we speaking a couple of Georgia as a European-style democracy-to-be, on the pathway to membership within the European Union and NATO?
Alternatively, are we making ready for a Russian-style autocracy that may function as a satellite tv for pc of its over-sized northerly neighbour?
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Founding father of the Georgian Dream occasion Bidzina Ivanishvili casts his vote. Pic: Reuters
The ruling occasion right here, known as “Georgian Dream”, has morphed over the course of the previous 12 years from an expressly pro-Western authorities to an organisation that has intently aligned itself with Moscow.
Its founder and controller, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is a billionaire businessman who made his fortune in Russia in the course of the chaos that adopted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Extra importantly, say his critics, Ivanishvili thinks and governs like a strong Russian.
His occasion’s Kremlin-like ‘international affect’ legislation, which was enacted this summer time amid large public protests, threatens the actions of media retailers, civil rights teams and different non-governmental organisations.
Equally, Georgian Dream has launched sweeping restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights within the title of “family values” and “the protection of minors.” As soon as once more, the laws mirrors related measures in Russia.
However Ivanishvil is ready to go additional, pledging to ban all pro-Western opposition teams if the occasion wins a constitutional majority within the upcoming ballot. Maybe greater than another measure, it’s this promise that has thrown the nation’s future into doubt.
Curiously, Georgian Dream rejects this “pro-Russian” characterisation – in reality Bidzine Ivanishvili not often mentions Russia in his speeches.
As an alternative, it says it’s the ‘occasion of peace’, searching for to de-escalate tensions with their neighbour. The West however is portrayed because the ‘world warfare occasion’, able to suck the nation right into a Ukraine-style warfare with Russia.
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President Salome Zourabichvili after casting her vote
Main the try to unseat the ruling occasion is the Georgian President, Salome Zourabichvili. The previous diplomat, who was born in France, is a staunch European and has been main the struggle to cease the nation’s drift into Russia’s orbit.
Extra importantly, she has additionally been working as political organiser, uniting dozens of fractious events behind a plan that might see technocratic authorities take energy for one yr after the election. This administration would implement reforms to re-start accession talks with the European Union.
It’s a not inconsiderable achievement for somebody who has spent a lot of her working life in France – however in one other approach, ought to not likely shock us.
Georgia has been constantly pro-Western since its emergence from the rubble of the Soviet Union and the polls nonetheless present that to be true.
Greater than 80% again membership of the EU, with 67% supporting membership in NATO, placing a major proportion of the nation’s 3.8 million individuals at odds with the ruling occasion.
But Georgian Dream’s model of populist conservativism has received it a strong base.
Critically, it makes use of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a software to warn Georgians off higher relations with the West. Why threat a “second front” they are saying on this damaging battle.
It’s an especially tight contest with few – if any – dependable polls to information us. At this level, just one factor that clear – no one one is aware of who will come out on prime.
