This weekend marks 5 years because the UK lastly managed to “take back control” and depart the European Union.
The referendum vote to depart was on 23 June 2016. It took three and half years after that, of negotiations with Brussels, political and authorized arguments at Westminster, and three British prime ministerial careers, earlier than Boris Johnson delivered on his promise to “get Brexit done”.
The referendum end result was shut. 51.89% voted to depart, 48.11% to stay – which is usually rounded to 52/48.
Throughout the total UK determination, there have been majorities in favour of leaving in England and Wales, and in opposition to in Scotland and Northern Eire.
Newest opinion polls constantly present that the general public thinks Brexit was a mistake.
For this yr’s fifth anniversary, YouGov requested: “In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to leave the European Union?”
The end result was “Wrong” 55% and “Right” 30%. A shocking three out of 4 of the 18 to 25-year-olds, who largely didn’t have an opportunity to vote within the referendum, assume leaving was a mistake.
There’s a softening of help on the Go away facet, however occasion divisions are nonetheless stark. 60% of Conservative voters on the final election, and 80% of Reform UK supporters, nonetheless assume it was the suitable determination, whereas 80% of each Labour and Liberal Democrat voters say it was mistaken.
Dire warnings from Remainers that the financial system would instantly go off a cliff didn’t materialise however the UK has not prospered because it left the EU.
There are fewer Europeans on this nation, however total immigration has hit record-high ranges within the years since Brexit.
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Boris Johnson had success along with his ‘get Brexit achieved’ message. Pic: AP
‘Gradual puncture’
It’s tough to separate the implications of Brexit from different financial shocks equivalent to COVID, Ukraine war-related power costs, and better inflation.
Nonetheless, most settle for the view of the impartial Workplace for Price range Duty that the long run hit to productiveness can be round 4%.
In The Brexit Recordsdata, a brand new report from the UK In A Altering Europe thinktank, Professor Jonathan Portes stated: “Overall, economists’ characterisation of Brexit as a ‘slow puncture’, rather than a car crash, has been vindicated.”
All which means that the UK’s relationship with Europe – our closest neighbours and largest buying and selling associate – may be very a lot a dwell challenge for the nation, regardless of the reluctance of battle-scarred politicians to speak about it.
5 years on, the UK nonetheless doesn’t know the place it’s heading. Each Labour and the Conservatives, the UK’s two events of presidency, have drawn “red lines” in opposition to rejoining the EU, or being a part of the one market or customs union or accepting freedom of motion of individuals. Earlier than the Brexit vote, they each thought of every of those insurance policies to be important to Britain’s prosperity.
In parliament, solely the Greens and the nationalist events are outright supporters of rejoining the EU.
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Sir Keir Starmer talking at an anti-Brexit protest in Westminster in 2019. Pic: Reuters
The Liberal Democrats have been as soon as essentially the most pro-Europe occasion. They’re solely simply recovering from brushes with electoral dying within the 2015, 2017 and 2019 basic elections and are continuing cautiously.
At PMQs final week, the Lib Dem chief challenged Sir Keir Starmer gently.
Sir Ed Davey requested politely: “If the prime minister will not change his mind today on a customs union, will he… open negotiations for the UK to join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention so that we can start removing the growth-damaging trade barriers, set up by the Conservatives?”.
In follow, he might find yourself merely offering cowl for the over-cautious authorities to affix PEM, an settlement to which nations aside from the EU already belong.
Even lots of those that nonetheless champion Brexit, together with Nigel Farage, concede that Brexit has “failed”. He claims it has been “mismanaged”. In its newest guise of Reform UK, Mr Farage’s political motion has switched to campaigning on immigration and attacking massive authorities fairly than dwelling on the advantages of their Brexit referendum victory.
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Nigel Farage has conceded that Brexit has ‘failed’
Labour is far more involved concerning the potential risk from Reform UK in seats it at the moment holds, particularly within the so-called Pink Wall. Sir Keir, who used to again a second referendum, is in no temper to inform voters that they made a mistake. He’s making an attempt a low-key “reset” in relations with the EU as an alternative, with out crossing the “red lines” set in his 2024 election manifesto.
Since Labour’s election victory, there have been greater than 60 “engagements” between authorities ministers and their EU counterparts.
Sir Keir will quickly be the primary British prime minister for 5 years to attend a gathering with all his EU counterparts.
Below Mr Johnson, Ms Truss and Mr Sunak, such invites have been turned down.
An annual UK-EU summit has been arrange. The place the Conservatives created a Division for Exiting the EU, Sir Keir has appointed a Cupboard Workplace minister, Nick Thomas-Symonds, supported by a senior civil servant Mike Ellam, to handle “relations with the EU”.
Mr Thomas-Symonds says there are “three pillars” for a greater relationship – safety, security, and prosperity.
Given the current hazard from Russia, each the UK and the EU need extra safety cooperation. This seems to be like the simplest space to enhance relations. Defence and international affairs are usually not coated by the post-Brexit EU-UK Commerce and Co-operation Settlement.
To stay a reputable asset, nonetheless, the UK must discover the cash to take care of its much-admired navy functionality.
If, as appears doubtless, as an entire Europe spends extra on defence beneath stress from President Trump, a sticking level may be how a lot entry the UK defence business is granted to defence procurement by EU members.
Safety means re-entering regulation and order cooperation agreements, equivalent to Europol, which the UK pulled out of voluntarily with Brexit. However will higher relations assist to “stop the boats” or “smash the gangs”?
Prosperity depends upon reversing the injury achieved to commerce. The EU is the UK’s largest commerce associate, accounting for half of products traded. This doesn’t apply the opposite means round – solely 22% of EU items exports come right here. Which means commerce offers are a a lot higher precedence for the UK than the EU.
For the UK to see important advantages, the EU can be required to compromise on its refusal to permit “cherry picking” in particular areas fairly than complete agreements after Brexit.
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Sir Keir Starmer says he will not ‘reverse Brexit’
In the meantime, a lot of the UK’s exports are in companies, not items. Ministers hope that in the event that they hold their heads down they’ll hold the UK out of a threatened tariff battle between the EU and the US.
So what concerning the final deal? Rejoining or holding one other membership referendum – at all times assuming that the bruised EU can be ready to ask such an unreliable and disunited ally again.
The businessman and TV star Lord Alan Sugar doesn’t mince his phrases. “The biggest disaster, in my lifetime, was us leaving the European Union”, he declared on this fifth anniversary of Brexit, including: “Get Back in the EU.”
The UK’s reply to Donald Trump on The Apprentice could also be scary however Britain’s mainstream politicians are extra scared of the unforeseeable penalties in the event that they reopen the Brexit query.
It took 30 years to get the UK into Europe and one other 40 to get the UK out. Do not maintain your breath!
