President Trump introduced a 25% on India starting August 1 on account of its continued buy of Russian oil. “Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,” the president posted to Fact on Wednesday morning. “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE,” he added.
India started drastically growing its imports of Russian crude firstly of the Russia-Ukraine warfare in 2022, with good cause, because the oil grew to become considerably cheaper and India was in a position to resell it at a premium to nations that merely wished to bypass all issues Russia. In January 2022, India was importing round 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russian crude, which represented solely 0.2% of crude imports. The warfare broke out a month later and by June India was importing 1.12 million bpd from Russia who overtook Iraq because the nation’s high provider. Almost a 12 months later in Might 2023, Russian imports peaked at 2.15 million bpd, with India at present importing round 1.7 million to 2.1 million bpd as of July 2025.
Round 35% to 40% of India’s crude oil now comes from Russia. Now, Russian crude was round $50 per barrel in Might 2025 when imports to India peaked. Center Jap grades had been round $10 to $20 greater on the time. The deal was a no brainer.
India-US bilateral commerce hit $118.4 billion in 2024. India exported roughly $79.4 billion in items to the US and imported $39 billion. The present commerce deficit with the US sits at $45.7 billion. A 25% tariff might value India billions in misplaced income from exports and threaten jobs in key sectors resembling autos, chemical substances, jewellery, gems, electronics, and textiles. Different Asian exporters would develop into extra fascinating, however China really purchases extra Russian crude than India at this level and different nations within the area have drastically smaller economies. Estimates state India might danger dropping $15 billion to $20 billion yearly because of the 25% tariff.
Now, if India had been compelled to purchase from the Center East for $10 to $20 extra per barrel, the nation would wish to spend round $6 to $10 billion extra on vitality yearly. India does refine and resells Russian crude and is alleged to usher in round $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion from that apply.
On paper, it could appear as if India has extra to lose by persevering with to buy Russian oil. Nonetheless, the US is displaying the world that it has the flexibility to dictate political coverage by way of financial warfare. India declared that it stays dedicated to persevering with “mutually beneficial bilateral trade” with the US after the 25% tariff was introduced. The US will go in any case BRICS nations in an try to dismantle the alliance, however BRICS members have proven that they now not have to depend on the West, and tariffs from the US might not maintain the identical leverage as they as soon as did.
