I’ve lengthy sought a reality as fairly as a Patrick Mahomes scramble.
I’ve as an alternative frequently stumbled right into a actuality as nasty because the tush push.
For precisely 1 / 4 of a century, I’ve grasped and groveled and guessed.
For practically that whole time, I’ve gagged.
In New Orleans on Sunday it’s Tremendous Bowl LIX between the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Meaning it’s time for Tremendous Bowl Prediction Column XXVI, written by the worst Tremendous Bowl predictor in America, this wrong-way hack stumbling by way of the final quarter-century embarrassing supporters naive sufficient to again me and richly rewarding these with sufficient widespread sense to wager towards me.
I’ve written 25 Tremendous Bowl prediction columns.
I’ve been mistaken 18 occasions.
That may be a 28% success charge, which implies you might have a 72% probability of cashing a wager towards me, which I counsel you do, now, instantly, as a result of historical past doesn’t lie.
Bear in mind when the Buffalo Payments misplaced 4 straight? I picked them 3 times. I cherished their story. I embraced their braveness. I misplaced my thoughts
Bear in mind the New England Patriots’ six-win dynasty? I by no means picked them as soon as. Greatest dynasty in historical past and never as soon as. I couldn’t. I couldn’t stand Invoice Belichick. I couldn’t abdomen Brady and Gronk. I couldn’t imagine the depths of my ignorance.
A fast look at a Google search finds a number of the headlines that inform my sorry story.
“Super Bowl 2019 prediction is a no-brainer: Rams…”
“Chiefs will batter Tom Brady and Bucs in Super Bowl blowout…”
“It just feels right to pick Atlanta Falcons to win Super Bowl…”
I as soon as missed on 11 consecutive picks. How do you blow 11 consecutive picks? By betting on the most effective story as an alternative of the most effective stats, that’s how. By being extra sentimental than sensible. By doing what — let’s face it — many people do when guessing the winner of the one recreation a 12 months they really watch.
They wager helmets. They wager colours. They wager backstories. For all intents and functions, they wager like me.
In my first 18 Tremendous Bowl picks, I used to be proper 3 times. That isn’t a misprint. I’ve since refocused and rebounded to hit on 4 of the final seven, and truly took a career-high two-game profitable streak into final 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl, having picked the Rams in 2022 — duh, I had no selection — after which selecting the refreshing Chiefs to beat the boring Eagles.
Are you able to say three-peat? I can’t. I blew it once more final 12 months by selecting the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Chiefs as a result of my coronary heart advised me the Chiefs and all their Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce nonsense had turn out to be too distracting.
I used to be mistaken, after all. It was the circus that triumphed over the company, and so this 12 months one would suppose I lastly discovered.
The Chiefs and their glamorous high-wire act are again. The Eagles and their hardscrabble cohesion have returned to dethrone them.
The Chiefs could make historical past with their third consecutive championship. Mahomes formally can turn out to be Tom Brady’s successor together with his fourth Tremendous Bowl title in, like, 10 minutes. Kelce can sing previous rock and roll songs from the rostrum after which suggest to Swift within the confetti.
A Chiefs victory could be good narrative, good drama, an ideal ending.
Which is why I’m selecting towards them. I’m a sucker no extra. This 12 months I’m not betting the most effective narrative. This 12 months I’m betting the most effective soccer group.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, left, and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes stand subsequent to the Vince Lombardi trophy throughout Tremendous Bowl LIX Opening Evening on Monday.
(Brynn Anderson / Related Press)
And the Eagles are clearly, decidedly, unequivocally the most effective soccer group.
Championship soccer will not be about model, it’s about substance. It’s not about appearances, it’s about depth. It’s not about angle, it’s about means, sheer means, and the Eagles have greater than the Chiefs by a big margin.
That is the place the Chiefs’ magic of 12 one-score wins ends. That is the place the Chiefs’ deplorable tomahawk chop stops. That is the place soccer’s luckiest group turns into its most bloodied.
I’m selecting the Eagles in a beatdown, and hearken to me, this time I’m proper.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have gone 15-1 whereas profitable their video games by a median of two touchdowns.
The Chiefs, in the meantime, have gained video games with doinked field-goal makes an attempt, blocked field-goal makes an attempt, unhealthy snaps, fourth-down tackles, and favorable officers rulings.
The Eagles have been darn good, the Chiefs have been darn lucky, and we’ll see that present itself from the primary second Jalen Hurts scrambles to the final second Mahomes slips.
The Eagles have the warmer quarterback, Hurts’ designed runs simpler this 12 months than Mahomes’ 14% charge of off-target passes. Hurts additionally has higher receiving weapons — A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith over Kelce — and one of many recreation’s finest offensive strains.
The Eagles have a greater protection — Jalen Carter is a mammoth run stopper and since early within the season they’ve given up a league-low 5.2 yards per go try. They’ve additionally recorded 10 takeaways this postseason, essentially the most by an NFL group with no turnovers.
Philadelphia Eagles working again Saquon Barkley carries the ball towards the Washington Commanders within the NFC championship recreation on Jan. 26.
(Chris Szagola / Related Press)
The Chiefs protection, in the meantime, can not cease the tush push — the Eagles are 3-0 towards them in scoring touchdowns on the short-yardage play — and now they are going to be charged with stopping one thing far tougher, somebody who will change this recreation.
How can they decelerate Saquon Barkley? The reply is they’ll’t, and that would be the distinction within the Eagles’ win.
When the Eagles misplaced to the Chiefs two Tremendous Bowls in the past, Eagles working backs gained 45 yards. Barkley, the league’s main rusher who twice crushed the Rams, features 45 yards each time he sneezes, and can change all the things together with his unstoppable presence.
The Chiefs have given up a median of 108 yards to working backs in two playoff video games, a dip from their robust common season and an indication they could be sporting down. Barkley has spent all season breaking tackles for a jillion yards, and there’s no motive to suppose he gained’t try this Sunday.
Will probably be an excellent recreation … for a half. Will probably be a bruising battle of wills … till all-world Eagles deal with Lane Johnson takes over. Will probably be an thrilling battle of brains … till the Eagles’ extraordinary defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, dominates.
Ultimately, it is going to be so apparent that even the wrong-way hack will hit it on the nostril.
Eagles 35, Chiefs 20.
And, as all the time … Chiefs followers, you’re welcome.
