In keeping with a report from Paradigm, an investor in Polymarket competitor Kalshi, a number of vital information suppliers had been miscounting Polymarket quantity, resulting in quantity values double what the quantity truly was.
The report, which got here from Paradigm’s analysis companion, Storm Slivkoff, detailed what number of information suppliers had been counting on counting the variety of “OrderFilled” occasions that had been emitted from the Polymarket contract.
Nonetheless, when a commerce happens on Polymarket, there are literally two “OrderFilled” occasions, one for the marker and one for the taker.
This information downside isn’t associated to any wash buying and selling that happens on Polymarket however is solely a results of failing to appropriately account for a way the good contract emits these occasions.
Examples of information suppliers that had been over-counting the information included within the Paradigm report are DefiLlama, Allium, and Blockworks, all of whom are apparently working to right this downside.
Curiously, Polymarket claims that this downside didn’t have an effect on the information by itself web site, with X person “primo_data,” who’s affiliated with Polymarket, noting that it “shows notional taker volume” in the identical method that Kalshi does and additional noting that different dashboards had adopted this methodology.
This isn’t how prediction markets report quantity, together with your portfolio firm Kalshi.
To be clear:
1. Our web site doesn’t double rely quantity. We present notional taker quantity (similar as Kalshi).
2. The first dashboards that present each Polymarket & Kalshi present notional quantity… pic.twitter.com/9Bu0zm0DS0
— Primo Knowledge (@primo_data) December 8, 2025
Prediction markets have grow to be more and more vital after the Commodity and Futures Buying and selling Fee made the choice below the Trump administration to successfully enable binary choices suppliers.
Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to each Polymarket and Kalshi and is an investor in Polymarket via 1789 Capital, the enterprise capital agency the place he’s a companion.
