The variety of Russian drone launches in opposition to Ukraine within the first 10 months of this 12 months was 303% increased than in the entire of 2024, based on information from the Centre for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS).
Russia’s use of Shahed-type suicide drones in Ukraine has surged this 12 months.
Russia has launched over 44,000 Shahed and Shahed variant drones, which is greater than quadruple 2024’s launches, based on CSIS information.
Round 64% of these had been destroyed, down from 68% in 2024 – as the size of assaults stretches Ukraine’s air defences.
Regardless of an exponential enhance in launches, Ukraine is managing to intercept a big proportion of the Shahed-type drones.
Civilians face rising drone risk
However the extra drones that Russia sends, the tougher it’s for Ukrainian air defences to intercept all of them.
And when so-called ‘suicide drones’ get via, the injury they do is appreciable, and the lack of life will be excessive.
Figures from the UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine present the devastating civilian toll of Russia’s missile and drone assaults in Ukraine this 12 months.
From January to September 2025, no less than 494 civilians had been killed by missiles and suicide drones, just like the Shahed.
The UN launched the missiles and loitering munitions monitoring in 2025, so historic information comparability isn’t attainable.
The figures present how Russia’s expanded drone marketing campaign has intensified the stress on Ukraine’s defences, and the toll is more and more measured in civilian lives.
Adapt and assault
Russia started receiving shipments of Shahed drones from Iran following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and started home manufacturing of the drones, designating them the ‘Geran-1’ (Shahed-131) and ‘Geran-2’ (Shahed-136).
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Supply: Open Supply Munitions Portal
Rick Rickard and Charlie Valentine, explosive ordinance specialists at EODynamics, clarify that Russia repeatedly adapts the Shahed design.
Initially, Shahed drones used a high-explosive warhead weighing roughly 50kg however following home manufacturing starting in Russia 90kg warheads have been added.
Mr Rickard explains a standard variant of warhead utilized in Shahed drones is fragmentation excessive explosive, aiming to maximise shrapnel injury in opposition to personnel.
Thermobaric warheads, designed for a most blast impact in opposition to buildings and fortified positions, have additionally been used.
The event of home drone manufacturing traces means Russia can adapt its drone functionality comparatively simply and cheaply.
In July, Russian state media broadcast footage from a Shahed manufacturing plant within the Alabuga Particular Financial Zone (SEZ) of the Tatarstan area of Russia.
The Alabuga plant’s reported near-term objective is to make 25,000 drones per 12 months.
Estimates from the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine in August urged that Russia deliberate to supply 79,000 Shahed-type drones in 2025.
The price of drone interception
The huge drone assaults are designed to put on Ukrainian defences and civilians down, Mr Atalan explains.
“You can hit them [Shaheds], intercept them, but the goal of the attacker is to force the defender to invest a lot of time and effort to intercept them,” Mr Atalan says.
Previously, Ukraine has used surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to intercept Russian drones.
However that’s not value efficient – SAMs can value over a number of hundred thousand {dollars} to make – whereas a Shahed or its variants value an estimated $20,000-$50,000 to construct, based on CSIS.
“Cost effectiveness and quantity is a quality of its own,” Mr Valentine explains. Success in drone battle is about “who can adapt quickest and for the most economically viable calculation”.
Extra reporting by Sam Doak, OSINT producer.
