The symbolism was plain to see.
5 years on from Brexit, the British prime minister on Monday was introduced again into the membership for one evening solely, invited to an off-the-cuff dinner with the EU’s 27 leaders to speak about resetting relations after a bumpy Brexit.
The invite was despatched out weeks in the past, with the intention on each side to forge nearer defence, safety and commerce ties.
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Britain is beneath new management with a Labour authorities that needed no a part of Brexit, whereas the European Union is probably now a bit extra pragmatic because it seeks to resume a lapsed friendship with an outdated ally in a extra hostile world.
The stage was set then for a rapprochement – as a substitute the EU leaders spent the casual summit locked up in a room conflict gaming the specter of a US-EU commerce conflict.
President Trump’s hostility to the EU was laid naked as he sounded off in regards to the “atrocity” of the EU on commerce and mentioned tariffs had been on their approach, whereas with the UK, the US may in all probability kind it out.
The substance behind these positions is that the EU has a whopping commerce deficit with the US – Trump hates that – whereas the UK doesn’t.
However there’s something else rising right here too: a Labour prime minister and Republican president that appear to have hit it off.
There was the dinner that they had in September at Trump Towers in New York and the 45-minute telephone name per week in the past on Sunday which I am advised was gentle on coverage and as a substitute a really private name between the 2 of them.
One insider advised me they had been “surprised” at how amenable Trump is in direction of Starmer. They is probably not an apparent pairing for a bromance, however irrespective of – all of it provides to the beneficial backdrop of a president with hyperlinks to Scotland, his fondness for the UK and love of the Royal Household.
However the huge unknown is whether or not Starmer can stay near each the EU and the US ought to relations between Washington and Brussels deteriorate. The prime minister was very clear on Monday that he is unwilling to select between the 2 sides.
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A few of it relies on how the EU handles this unpredictable president. For now, the bloc is treading rigorously, with intense talks happening between the US and EU over commerce – may the EU for instance take extra oil and fuel from the US market to shut that commerce imbalance? – as particular person European leaders maintain the road.
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How will Trump’s tariffs have an effect on Brits?
In Brussels and London, operatives are watching how the specter of tariffs performs out in Mexico and Canada, the place it looks like making concessions garners outcomes.
As for London, there may be quiet confidence that Trump will not slap tariffs on the UK. “That’s not where he’s looking”, says one authorities insider.
However what Starmer cannot make sure of is whether or not the US president will even look the opposite approach because the UK forges a more in-depth buying and selling relationship with China, whereas standing agency with Europe ought to relations between Washington and Brussels deteriorate.
Starmer and his workforce suppose it might handle relations with China, the US and the EU in order that the UK comes out on high. However that might show a lot simpler mentioned than finished.
