QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I’m new to your weblog. My mates right here have been on my case to hearken to you. Our authorities has fallen, and I’ve noticed one factor. Your forecasts are right as a result of no person right here will ever make a daring forecast, they usually all appear to evangelise the identical state of affairs. You’ve gotten been correct on Germany in opposition to the herd of analysts right here. One after the other, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding earlier than our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You’ve gotten an answer for the US. May you save Europe from itself?
Thanks
DT
ANSWER: As a result of I’m not an educational, what I converse comes from expertise and direct remark. The one financial theories which have survived are solely from those that have been merchants – not lecturers. John Regulation traded on the Amsterdam change and gave beginning to Provide and Demand. He articulated his well-known water vs diamond analogy, which acknowledged that water was very important to society. Nonetheless, water had little worth in comparison with a diamond that had no true utility worth but was price greater than water. Even David Ricardo was concerned in buying and selling and noticed the implications of worldwide capital flows. He expressed {that a} nation ought to deal with its comparative benefit – one thing Trump should perceive.
Sir Thomas Gresham additionally traded on the identical Amsterdam change and noticed that debasement drove out the older coinage from the cash provide. Gresham’s Regulation turned that unhealthy cash drove good out of circulation. We noticed this even through the third century AD when individuals hoarded the previous silver cash and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I used to be advised, bought his thought of basic relativity from shifting up and down in an elevator. Albert’s particular concept of relativity seemed to be incompatible with the gravitational power as described by Newton’s regulation of gravity.
Most analysts espouse the identical previous nonsense and venture the longer term based mostly on what the central financial institution will or is not going to do. These analysts will not be actual, for all they purport is similar Keynesian theories they had been taught in class. Sorry – they had been an educational concept impressed by Marx and not work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Enterprise Cycle, by which he acknowledged that the “new economics” in the end failed. Any analyst who factors to the Fed has by no means learn the memos. Right here, we’ve got the considering course of earlier than Keynes. The Fed raised charges in Might 1928 and continued into the 1929 excessive with no impact.
Here’s a chart of name cash charges from the NYSE. Simply look carefully. We see that 1929 was the most important inventory market rally however the lowest stage of rates of interest, all due to the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 noticed charges rise to nearly 200% due to the capital outflows. There isn’t any such concept of inventory market up rates of interest down that may be verified in any way.
You’re right. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I’ve mentioned many occasions, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it might by no means rival the greenback, forcing institutional traders to nonetheless choose and select between member states missing a nationwide debt market. Mr Scholz is a catastrophe. He misplaced a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch try and retain energy with guarantees of huge spending fell flat on its face. It will ship Germany to the election in February, exactly when our laptop has been projecting a Panic Cycle upfront. Leaders from a number of main events have since agreed to maneuver up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months forward of schedule.
I might gladly fly to Brussels to deal with all members directly. However you should perceive the pc forecasts that my finest efforts is not going to succeed. Every member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it could strain others to observe or be left behind. However politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are getting ready for a 3rd World Battle which the pc forecasts that they are going to lose. This would be the demise of the West. I suppose traditionally, all of us have our minutes of fame.
In 800AD, Pope Leo III topped Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. Right this moment, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the daddy of Europe. From that date, the EU shouldn’t be prone to exist after 2029. Europe is heading within the mistaken route, and NATO is pushing for World Battle III, and there’s not a single authorities even keen to barter. That makes it very arduous. In all actuality, I believe they’d solely hearken to me in 2029 and past.
