Poland has begun voting for a brand new president in an election that may check the federal government’s energy in opposition to any resurgence of right-wing populism.
The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, has sought to reform Polish democracy after ousting the nationalist Legislation and Justice social gathering in 2023.
However the authorities has been hamstrung by President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the earlier administration, who holds a veto over laws.
The presidential election – the primary spherical of which is as we speak (Sunday) – is being billed as a selection between two futures for the EU heavyweight.
If Mr Tusk’s ally wins the presidency it might permit the federal government to push ahead with its agenda, whereas victory for the Legislation and Justice social gathering could signify an increase of populism in Poland.
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Nawrocki and Trzaskowski seen throughout a debate. Pic: Reuters
Who’re the frontrunners?
Main the polls is Rafal Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw who was narrowly defeated by Mr Duda within the 2020 presidential vote.
Seen as a progressive, Mr Trzaskowski’s major proposals embrace growing defence spending to five% of GDP, creating Poland’s arms and know-how industries and liberalising the nation’s abortion legal guidelines.
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Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. Pic: Reuters
With Mr Duda unable to run once more (presidents in Poland can solely serve two phrases) the populist facet of Polish politics is represented by Karol Nawrocki.
The 42-year-old conservative historian additionally helps growing defence spending to five% of GDP, however in contrast to Mr Trzaskowski he opposes some LGBT rights and liberalising abortion.
It is a busy subject within the first spherical of the elections (if one candidate doesn’t obtain 50% of the vote, the highest two undergo to a runoff vote, as occurred in 2020), with plenty of different candidates throwing their hats within the ring.
Amongst them are the far-right Slawomir Mentzen in third place, who’s the speaker of Poland’s decrease home of Parliament, Szymon Holownia, and three leftwing candidates: Magdalena Biejat, Adrian Zandberg and Joanna Senyszyn.
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Karol Nawrocki is second within the polls. Pic: Reuters
Ukraine, Russia and Poland’s safety
A key difficulty within the election is how one can construct Poland’s safety in a fast-changing world with Russia waging warfare on neighbours Ukraine, in response to historian and educational Karolina Wigura.
Poland has been one of many staunchest supporters of Ukraine and boasts a robust army.
Ms Wigura says the conservative Mr Nawrocki has used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, just like language utilized by the earlier authorities.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Pic: Reuters
“It happens to every country that welcomes a large group of migrants within a relatively short time.”
However Ukrainians are “extremely well-integrated”, she says.
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The Polish NATO base on the frontline with Russia
Migration
Migration and how one can forestall it’s one other key theme going into the elections, with all candidates, together with the progressive Mr Trzaskowski, showing to undertake extra sturdy messaging in response to opinion polls, Ms Wigura says.
“Almost all the candidates, with very few exceptions, tend to argue that Poland should strongly prevent further migration, maybe from the Middle East, maybe from Ukraine or Belarus in general,” she stated.
Mr Tusk, as properly, has been extra vital in his feedback round immigration.
Earlier this yr, Poland quickly suspended the precise of migrants arriving in Poland by way of its border with Belarus to use for asylum.
“Unfortunately, it’s actually very painful to say that this has been the most racist and antisemitic campaign we have observed in Poland since 1989,” Ms Wigura provides.
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Sir Keir Starmer meets Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. Pic: Reuters
Abortion
Poland has one of many strictest units of legal guidelines in Europe in terms of abortion.
“The 2023 elections were largely won by the democratic coalition because of the ban,” Ms Wigura says.
However opinions inside the coalition are diversified, with so many various viewpoints represented inside the authorities.
It is one of many points that divides the 2 frontrunners, with Mr Trzaskowski in favour of liberalising the regulation and Mr Nawrocki opposes any rollback of latest legal guidelines limiting entry to abortion.
