Ukraine has been repeatedly focusing on Russian oil refineries, intensifying the pressure on each the nation’s army operation and its wider financial system.
This comes because the US imposes heavy sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil corporations.
Russia is dealing with rising disruption on the pumps as Ukrainian drone strikes additionally goal gas stations.
Refineries hit once more, and once more
Ten refineries stand out for having been struck twice or extra because the starting of August 2025.
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The assaults are predominantly within the west of the nation, inside drone vary from Ukraine.
To place stress on Russia, Seigle stated: “The Ukrainian strikes have to come at a faster pace with greater effect than the Russians are able to repair.”
Strain on Russian oil isn’t just coming from Ukraine.
The most recent refinery to be struck, the Ryazan refinery, is owned by the Rosneft oil firm, which was sanctioned by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday.
Mr Trump imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil corporations – Rosneft and Lukoil.
Between the 2 corporations, 13 of their refineries have been focused, and 5 of those have been focused a number of instances.
Seigle stated whereas the sanctions are the strongest card by way of ones that the US has performed, “it’s all about the implementation”.
“The first thing that we have with these new sanctions is a 30-day period for companies doing business with Rosneft and Lukoil to wind down their operations,” Seigle defined.
Sanctioned refinery hit once more final evening
Ukraine struck the Ryazan refinery in a single day in a suspected drone strike, the third time the refinery has been hit in three months.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the assault and stated the refinery had been focused for its involvement in supplying the Russian military.
The refinery was additionally hit on 2 August and 5 September.
Picture:
Satellite tv for pc picture exhibits the areas on the Ryazan Oil Refinery which have been struck by Ukraine in latest months
Later experiences acknowledged that two crude distillation models – the primary crude oil processing unit, and thus one of many refinery’s most crucial capabilities – had been hit.
Stills from September appeared to indicate a big fireplace on the major oil processing unit, the place crude oil is desalted after which separated into kerosene, gasoline, diesel and oil for gas.
The latest strike appeared to focus on an set up subsequent to the areas beforehand struck.
Panic as pumps hit by strikes and shortages
In its October oil market report, the Worldwide Vitality Company estimated that persistent assaults on Russian power infrastructure have lower Russian crude processing by an estimated 500 thousand barrels per day.
Different components of oil infrastructure, together with petrol stations, have additionally been focused.
The common value of 95-octane petrol (the usual petrol in Russia) at Russian pumps has risen by greater than 30% because the begin of the Ukraine battle in 2022, in accordance with the Russian state information supplier Rosstat. Within the final two months, the common value has risen by round 5% and now stands at greater than 67 rubles per litre.
Emily Ferris, Senior Analysis Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Safety at RUSI, defined that Ukraine’s technique has intensified in latest months.
“The Ukrainian drones are capable of attacking more frequently and deeper into Russian territory, as well as hitting some refineries numerous times.”
The technique behind the strikes, Ferris says, is to break the Russian financial system.
She stated: “Attacking refineries in Russia does temporarily have an impact on production, and Ukraine is hoping that this will be sufficiently debilitating to Russia’s economy – which depends on hydrocarbon production – to slow the progress of the war.”
The discount of crude processing has resulted in home gas shortages.
There are indicators that that is having actual results on Russian individuals, who’ve taken to social media with movies of queues at petrol stations.
This month, queues had been filmed at petrol stations in Khabarovsk, within the far east of Russia.
Seigle believes a part of the Ukrainian technique is “bringing the consequences home to these remote regions [of Russia] that are far from the front, it kind of brings more people into the risk factor of perpetuating this war against Ukraine”.
Evaluation from the unbiased Russian monitoring group thinktank Re:Russia confirmed searches for explanations of oil shortages on the Russian search engine Yandex have elevated in 2025.
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Ferris explains that whereas fires at oil refineries and gas shortages are impacting individuals’s every day lives, “local complaints do not often translate into coordinated mass protests capable of challenging the status quo or forcing Putin’s hand”.
