This EU-UK summit has for months been brazenly billed by Sir Keir Starmer’s Downing Road as a vastly important second for this authorities.
The Labour chief promised in his 2024 election manifesto that the UK would signal a brand new safety pact with the EU to strengthen cooperation and enhance the UK’s buying and selling relationship with the continent.
Since profitable energy in July, he has launched into a appeal offensive throughout European capitals in a bid to safe that higher post-Brexit deal.
Monday is ready to be when the PM makes good on these guarantees at a historic summit at Lancaster Home in London.
Please use Chrome browser for a extra accessible video participant
16:30
From Sunday: ‘No ultimate deal but’ with EU
There, the EU and UK are anticipated to signal a safety and defence partnership, which has taken on a brand new sense of urgency because the arrival of President Trump within the White Home.
It’s an settlement that can symbolise the post-Brexit reset, with the PM, European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa are additionally anticipated to log out on a communique pledging deeper financial cooperation.
However, quite just like the torturous Brexit negotiations I lined for years in London and Brussels underneath Conservative prime ministers, Sir Keir’s post-Brexit reset talks are happening to the wire.
As of 10.30pm on Sunday, discussions had been set to proceed in a single day, the 2 sides snared up over particulars round fisheries, meals commerce and youth mobility.
It is not that either side don’t desire the reset: the battle in Ukraine and the spectre of the US changing into an unreliable accomplice have pushed London and Brussels nearer collectively of their widespread defence curiosity.
Spreaker
This content material is offered by Spreaker, which can be utilizing cookies and different applied sciences.
To indicate you this content material, we want your permission to make use of cookies.
You should use the buttons under to amend your preferences to allow Spreaker cookies or to permit these cookies simply as soon as.
You’ll be able to change your settings at any time through the Privateness Choices.
Sadly we now have been unable to confirm in case you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content material you should use the button under to permit Spreaker cookies for this session solely.
Allow Cookies
Permit Cookies As soon as
👉 Click on right here to comply with Electoral Dysfunction wherever you get your podcasts 👈
Fishing and youth mobility – the 2 snags
However the strain for this deal weighs extra closely on our prime minister than his European colleagues. He is been speaking for months about securing a reset and higher buying and selling relationship with the EU to bolster the UK economic system.
His have to reveal wins is why, suggests one continental supply, the Europeans are letting talks go to the wire, with London and Brussels in a tangle over fishing rights – key calls for of France and the Netherlands – and a youth mobility scheme, which is a selected focus for Berlin.
“The British came with 50 asks, we came with two – on fishing and the youth mobility scheme,” says one European supply.
The EU is asking for longer-term entry to UK fishing grounds – a 10-year deal – which the British authorities has rebuffed, insisting it is not going to transcend a four-year deal.
In response, Brussels is saying it is not going to raise regulatory checks on meals, agricultural and animal merchandise except the UK strikes on fishing. This has left the 2 sides at an deadlock.
EU sources say Brussels had provided a time-limited deal to raise checks on animal merchandise – replicating London’s provide on fisheries – however the UK is reluctant to do that because it leaves an excessive amount of uncertainty for farmers and supermarkets.
Picture:
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Sir Keir Starmer discuss to the press after their assembly on Could 16, 2025 Pic: Reuters
Scotland election weighing on talks
A deal on meals merchandise, generally known as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) items, can be a lift for the economic system, with probably as much as 80% of border checks disappearing, given the breadth of merchandise – paint, style items, leather-based in addition to meals – with an animal part.
Any deal would additionally imply the UK must align with guidelines made in Brussels and make a monetary contribution to the EU to fund work on meals and animal requirements.
Each parts will set off accusations of Brexit “betrayal”, because the UK indicators up as a “rule taker” and finds itself paying again into the EU for higher entry.
Authorities figures had been telling me how they had been greater than ready to face down the criticisms more likely to be thrown at them from the Conservatives.
However sensitivities round fishing, significantly in Scotland, the place Labour is going through elections subsequent yr, have weighed on talks.
The opposite space of giant stress is over a youth mobility scheme, which might allow younger adults from member states to check and work within the UK and vice versa.
Authorities sources accustomed to the talks acknowledge some form of scheme will occur, however need particulars to be obscure – I am informed it may be “an agreement about a future agreement”, whereas the EU sees this a considered one of its two core calls for.
Please use Chrome browser for a extra accessible video participant
2:54
European leaders collect in Ukraine
In talks late on Sunday evening, the UK authorities gave the impression to be softening on re-opening the pre-Brexit Erasmus pupil alternate scheme as maybe a technique to get across the deadlock, in response to one EU supply.
The UK rejoining this scheme had been rebuffed by Sir Keir final yr, however was raised once more final evening in talks, in response to a supply.
Frequent floor on defence and safety
Wherever the financial horsetrading lands, the 2 sides have discovered widespread floor in current months is on defence and safety, with the UK working in lockstep with European allies over Ukraine and relationships deepening in current months as Sir Keir Starmer has labored with President Macron and others to attempt to easy tensions between Kyiv and Washington and work on a European peace deal for Ukraine.
If particulars on commerce, youth mobility and fisheries are fudged on Monday, the expectation is that the 2 sides will signal a safety partnership that can reiterate the UK’s dedication to construct up the continent’s defence functionality and stand united in opposition to Russian aggression with its companions.
Please use Chrome browser for a extra accessible video participant
3:31
5 years of Brexit defined
The deal also needs to imply British arms corporations will be capable of entry the EU’s €150bn rearmament programme, which has been set as much as create an enormous surge in defence spending over the subsequent 5 years as Europe prepares itself to raised repel threats.
As I write this, talks are ongoing, however it’s clearly in neither facet’s curiosity for Monday to go mistaken.
The EU and UK want to take care of a united entrance and, extra importantly for Keir Starmer domestically, the PM wants to point out an more and more sceptical public he can ship on his guarantees.
Easing commerce obstacles with Britain’s largest buying and selling accomplice and signing an EU defence pact can be two manifesto guarantees delivered.
And along with his reputation sinking to a document low in current days, he might actually do with a win.
