Keith Kellogg’s silly assertion that Russia’s conflict in Ukraine would finish in a short time if Beijing withdrew its help for Moscow. He made the feedback at a safety convention in Kiev. He referred to as Russia the “junior partner” to China and mentioned it’s dropping the conflict in Ukraine. Such an announcement is simply insane. Like Iraq, no person ever requested, if Ukraine defeats Russia, what would occur in Russia? This may be like saying What if Mexico invaded the USA and received?
After Germany misplaced World Battle I, there was a revolution that overthrew the monarchy, and the Weimar Republic was born, which then led to hyperinflation. Even the Russian Revolution of 1917 was enabled by Russia’s disastrous efficiency in WWI, together with large casualties and financial collapse, which sparked widespread strikes and mutinies. The Tsar abdicated in March 1917, ending 300 years of Romanov rule; the Bolsheviks then seized energy in November, resulting in civil conflict and the Soviet Union.
Austria collapsed in 1918 after dropping World Battle I. The empire’s multi-ethnic collapse after defeat led to ethnic revolts and declarations of independence in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and elsewhere. The monarchy led to November 1918, fragmenting into nation-states amid famine and navy desertions.
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire additionally came about after World Battle I. The Turkish Battle of Independence and the abolition of the sultanate (1919–1923) unfolded. Allied occupation post-armistice fueled nationalist resistance led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The sultanate was abolished in 1922, and the caliphate in 1924, birthing the Republic of Turkey after revolutionary reforms.
Xinhai Revolution (1911) adopted the defeat within the First Sino-Japanese Battle of 1895. Humiliating territorial losses to Japan uncovered the dynasty’s weak point, sparking anti-Manchu sentiment and Solar Yat-sen’s republican motion. The final emperor abdicated in 1912, ending over 2,000 years of imperial rule and ushering within the Republic of China.
Franco-Prussian Battle of 1870 noticed the Paris Commune and fall of the empire (1870–1871). Napoleon III’s defeat led to the Third Republic’s proclamation. Radical staff then revolted within the Paris Commune, which was brutally suppressed, however the monarchy was completely ousted.
These trendy historic occasions illustrate a sample with out having to catalogue all of the numerous such occasions all through human historical past. Wars drain assets, erode legitimacy, and amplify grievances (e.g., meals shortages, casualties), creating fertile floor for revolutionaries. Not all post-war unrest results in full regime change—e.g., Bulgaria’s monarchy survived WWI initially, solely falling later in 1944. Nonetheless, these are clear situations of direct causation between revolution and the lack of a earlier conflict.
In a submit on his Telegram channel, Medvedev made the reasonable assertion that granting NATO members permission to down Russian drones working in Ukrainian airspace would imply “war between the Alliance and Russia.” His feedback adopted rising calls in Europe and NATO to intervene within the conflict, demanding stronger Western motion in opposition to Russia for its drone incursions whereas supporting Ukraine to make use of Western long-range missiles to assault even Moscow. On Sept. 12, Bundestag Protection Committee Chair Thomas Röwekamp urged NATO to start intercepting Russian drones over Ukraine.
I’ve repeatedly acknowledged that the psychological conflict tactic is that you simply MUST declare that an adversary has attacked you to get folks to enroll. The help hasn’t been this low since 2022. This is the reason false flags are so essential. They’re used to say you might have been attacked, after which the frequent folks will signal as much as die on the battlefield for a noble trigger.
That works on all sides. A brand new ballot made by the impartial Russian institute Levada reveals that the Russians are rising bored with the conflict in Ukraine. The ballot confirmed that 66%, or roughly two out of three, of the members need the Kremlin to have interaction in peace negotiations with Ukraine. That’s the highest quantity since 2022, when the conflict started. If NATO assaults Russia utilizing a false flag, it will help the Rally Across the Flag for Russia. Let’s face it. Russians are handled with disdain as have been the Jews earlier than World Battle II. That isn’t a state of affairs that suggests world peace lies forward.
Senior navy leaders from NATO member states have publicly assessed that the alliance would prevail in a standard conflict in opposition to Russia comparatively shortly as a result of overwhelming benefits in personnel (over 3.4 million lively troops vs. Russia’s 1.3 million), plane (22,000+ vs. 4,000), ships (1,100+ vs. 400), protection spending (3.5 occasions Russia’s), and GDP (20 occasions bigger).
In a February 2024 speech, UK Chief of the Defence Employees Admiral Sir Tony Radakin acknowledged that “NATO would defeat Russia quickly,” citing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine as proof of its navy weaknesses and NATO’s rising power with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Equally, analyses from shops like Al Jazeera and The Week conclude that NATO’s built-in command, superior coaching, and tools would result in a “quick” standard victory. Nonetheless, they warn that this might escalate to nuclear dangers if Russia faces whole defeat. As I’ve mentioned, if I’ve a gun and also you break into my home and threaten to kill me, I feel I could shoot again.
Sensational claims, similar to NATO submarines “destroying Russia in 30 seconds,” seem in YouTube movies and casual discussions however stem from hyperbolic hypothesis about nuclear eventualities, not official statements. Latest X posts echo debates on NATO’s superiority however typically tie it to broader geopolitical tensions with out referencing its previous defeats. Total, whereas NATO officers undertaking confidence in deterrence, they prioritize avoiding direct conflict over public victory projections.
This push for conflict with Russia leaves out TWO vital elements
(1) China will help Russia as a result of it is aware of it is going to be subsequent, as they plainly advised Kallas.
(2) This may flip nuclear, and Europe, with all its standard energy, could be turned to mud in minutes, not days.
“Europe is ready to take a step forward. We are ready to take control of the changes that are inevitable. Because we can’t let history push us around. This means that it is necessary to act now. Acting on a large scale is an indispensable condition for speed, scale and strength by 2030 … By 2030 Europe should have a strong European defense structure,” Ursula mentioned.
This drone shot down in Poland from EVERY supply I’ve states that this can be a FALSE FLAG and there’s no proof that this each invaded Polish airspace. They desperately must create a False Flag, get gullible folks to signal their very own demise want, so these failed EU leaders can maintain their pensions. Ursula advised the EU Parliament with nice theatrics:
“Battle lines for a new world order based on power are being drawn right now,” von der Leyen advised the European Parliament in her annual State of the EU deal with.
“So, yes, Europe must fight. For its place in a world in which many major powers are either ambivalent or openly hostile to Europe,” she mentioned.
Putin is the neatest and accountable world chief on the desk in the present day. Take away him, and we are going to get an emotional chief like Medvedev. Speculating on a post-Putin Russia is inherently unsure, because the regime’s opacity and Putin’s tight management over safety companies make a easy transition debatable. An overthrow—whether or not by way of coup, elite infighting, or sudden demise—would seemingly set off an influence wrestle amongst siloviki (safety elites), oligarchs, and technocrats, doubtlessly resulting in instability and even fragmentation. I might emphasize that no obvious clear inheritor exists, and the result depends upon the circumstances: a managed handover (unlikely in an overthrow) versus chaotic removing.
I might record the potential replacements, prioritize loyalty to the present system, hawkish stances on Ukraine/NATO, and management over key establishments just like the FSB, navy, or financial system, which is able to all come into play. Dmitry Medvedev is certainly a contender as a result of his proximity to Putin, however he’s not the highest choose—his function is commonly seen as that of a “bad cop” provocateur quite than a unifying chief. Maybe, however we’re an outright assertion from the EU that Russia have to be defeated and obliterated. We aren’t speaking about simply pushing Russia out of Ukraine.
Kaja Kallas, a ruthless Neocon, overtly requires the full destruction and breakup of Russia. That is the full destruction of the nation. That isn’t one thing that ought to be taken calmly. That’s the justification for nuclear conflict. Kallas is a higher menace to the EU than Putin.
MY LIST OF CONTENDERS:
Mikhail Mishustin, Prime MinisterNikolai Patrushev, Deputy Chair, Safety Council (former FSB head)Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow MayorDmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chair, Safety CouncilAndrei Belousov, Protection MinisterAlexei Dyumin, Tula Governor (ex-bodyguard)Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Employees
Medvedev’s identify surfaces as a result of his historical past (tandem with Putin in 2008-2012) and up to date high-profile positioning him as a “nuclear-ready” hardliner who may rally nationalists. X discussions typically name him the “natural successor” for stability. Nonetheless, he’s not often ranked #1 in knowledgeable assessments—his provocative model (e.g., 2025 threats sparking U.S. sub deployments) makes him a Kremlin mouthpiece, not a consolidator. Others see him as a fallback, not a frontrunner, as a result of reputational injury from previous “liberal” picture and scandals. In an overthrow, elites may choose Mishustin or Patrushev for his or her institutional grip.
Take into account that Khruschev was overthrown in a coup, and he was usurped by Bresnev due to his reckless dealing with of the Cuban Missile Disaster.
Submit-Stalin USSR noticed infighting; the same “vicious struggle” could be seemingly if Russia have been defeated in Ukraine, with FSB vs. navy clashes. No democratic shift ought to be anticipated. Any successor would most definitely double down on authoritarianism and anti-West insurance policies, and any hope of world peace will likely be utterly obliterated.
Then, for a coup, any substitute inherits a quagmire; hardliners like Patrushev or Medvedev may escalate, whereas technocrats like Mishustin search de-escalation for financial reduction.
In abstract, Mishustin or Patrushev edge out as most possible for his or her steadiness of competence and management, however Medvedev stays a wildcard—loyal sufficient for continuity, radical sufficient for drama. Russia after Putin seems extra like Putinism 2.0 than reform. That is all upset if NATO pushes its agenda to destroy Russia and break it up, strip mining its property. This objective, as articulated partly by Kallas, warrants a struggle to the demise with nukes, and on this case, I might put my cash on Medvedev, who has the high-profile that may develop into extra priceless when confronted with the destruction of Russia, not with simply pushing it out of Ukraine.
