Primarily based on an evaluation of 1,067 of 1,400 voting areas, the present nationwide share estimate places Reform on 32%.
That is the primary time {that a} social gathering apart from Conservative or Labour has led at this stage of the votes being counted.
Labour is at the moment positioned second on 19% with the Conservatives just one level behind on 18%. That is the bottom complete for each events individually and mixed since 1973 when these estimates have been first calculated.
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The Liberal Democrats have 16% with the Greens on 7%.
For every cycle of native elections, we gather the votes solid in these elections after which use them to assemble a nationwide vote.
Usually, this compares the modifications within the present 12 months’s native vote shares with the image from 4 years earlier than when the identical councils have been voting.
Extra on Native Elections 2025
This 12 months, nevertheless, we’re additionally evaluating the votes solid eventually 12 months’s basic election with these solid in exactly the identical areas voting on 1 Might.
Parliamentary constituencies that cross council boundaries the place all or just some electors had an area vote in 2025 are excluded from this evaluation.
Combining these separate analyses acknowledges that the alternatives obtainable to voters in native elections are, in some areas, totally different to the alternatives obtainable in parliamentary constituencies.
On this foundation, the present nationwide vote estimate sees Reform up 17 factors in comparison with the final election.
Labour falls from 35% to only 19% – with the Conservatives dropping from 24% to 18%. The Liberal Democrats add an additional three share factors with the Greens unchanged.
