The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even essentially the most brutal dictatorship when beneath stress, however it additionally creates a safety vacuum that carries nice danger.
As soon as the scenes of insurgent euphoria subside on the streets, a lot will relaxation on the highly effective group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the cost into Damascus in a single day.
Beforehand linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is considered as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, together with the UK.
However the motion has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and as a substitute emphasise a dedication to tolerance of minorities.
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‘New period in Center East’
Now, having achieved such gorgeous success over the previous few days, its chief Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even greater job of uniting a rustic that has been divided by civil struggle for greater than 13 years.
The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted horrible violence on its folks, specifically through the first years of the rebellion that started in 2011 – and together with using chemical weapons.
Bringing these accountable to justice with out resorting to violent retribution might be a key, although massively tough, take a look at for whether or not a transition of energy led by HTS could be comparatively peaceable.
Even with the most effective intentions of the HTS management, although, Syria has turn out to be a breeding floor for Sunni Islamist terrorism.
Any safety vacuum might be exploited by Islamic State – which fashioned a caliphate throughout swathes of Syria and Iraq through the early years of the civil struggle – and by al Qaeda.
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Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Putin have to be in disaster mode
Then there’s the query of Mr Assad’s overseas backers, primarily Russia and Iran.
Vladimir Putin should absolutely be in disaster mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had beforehand efficiently propped up when insurgent teams first challenged his grip on energy.
Russia has two strategic army amenities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
Each might be beneath risk except the Kremlin is ready to lower some hasty cope with Syria’s rising powerbrokers – although such a transfer would absolutely be near-on unattainable given Moscow’s half in supporting the violence carried out beforehand by Mr Assad’s military.
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Syrian rebels storm presidential palace
The dramatic transformation within the actuality on the bottom might be felt much more starkly by Iran, whose forces have equally been instrumental in supporting the regime, each via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in addition to Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
Syria has been a key a part of an axis of affect cultivated by the IRGC over a long time and has been an necessary website for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces throughout the area.
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A picture of Mr Assad riddled with bullets on the provincial authorities workplace constructing in Hama. Pic: AP
Turkey might emerge as an necessary ally
Different regional powers may even be quickly reassessing their strategy to Damascus.
Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, might be an fascinating nation to observe.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authorities has lengthy strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an necessary backer for various insurgent groupings that helped to oust him.
It means Ankara might effectively emerge as an necessary ally to the brand new Syrian management.
Trump could also be left with little selection
The US, which has been supporting a Kurdish insurgent group within the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted through the previous week of unprecedented change.
President elect Donald Trump has been clear he doesn’t see a job for Washington within the disaster.
However ought to the state of affairs descend into escalating bloodshed as soon as once more, he might have little selection.
