Russia is the obvious omission from Donald Trump’s tariffs record. Together with Cuba, Belarus and North Korea, it has been spared the sweeping measures, with America’s foes apparently handled higher than a lot of its buddies.
The reason given by White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt to the US outlet Axios was that present sanctions “preclude any meaningful trade” with Russia.
However the numbers do not fairly again that up.
It is definitely true that US-Russia commerce is not what it was. The conflict in Ukraine has seen it plummet from $35bn (£26.6bn) in 2021 to $3.5bn (£2.6bn) in 2024.
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However final yr’s determine was nonetheless larger than Washington’s commerce quantity with Kyiv ($2.9bn, £2.2bn), and that did not cease Ukraine from being slapped with 10% levies.
It is also significantly greater than what the US traded with the likes of Brunei ($366m, £278m) and Mauritius ($282.5m, £214.9m) – one other two nations which did not escape the punitive measures.
What’s extra, from Donald Trump’s viewpoint, the overwhelming majority of US-Russia commerce is flowing within the unsuitable course, i.e. into America. Of that, $3.5bn (£2.6bn) in 2024, $3bn (£2.2bn) had been Russian imports, like fertiliser and aluminium, giving a deficit that is a lot worse (proportionally talking) than a number of of these on the naughty record.
So what’s behind Russia’s exemption?
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Many say it smacks of additional favouritism in direction of the Kremlin.
“I hope the American people get an explanation for this. I find it outrageous,” Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, wrote on X.
Donald Trump has been lambasted by critics for not being powerful sufficient on Vladimir Putin as he pushes for a peace deal in Ukraine.
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0:50
Trump ‘upset’ in Putin
He did lately threaten to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil if Moscow blocked a ceasefire, however this newest softball makes these threats sound more and more hole.
His tariff announcement additionally coincided with a go to to Washington by Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who’s the highest-ranking Russian official to journey to the US on state enterprise since Moscow’s invasion.
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0:33
Trump tariffs: Vindication for the PM?
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The previous Goldman Sachs banker, who’s head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, is assembly US officers, together with Steve Witkoff. Was the timing of his journey a coincidence? Or a reminder to Staff Trump of what is at stake?
Moscow has made it abundantly clear to Washington that there are profitable offers to be completed ought to relations proceed to thaw. It isn’t laborious to see how new levies might derail that.
There may be an alternate view – that it is all a part of Donald Trump’s well-known negotiating technique. Maintain one thing again to make use of with higher impact down the road.
“One of the reasons why Russia is not on Trump’s tariff list yesterday is that tariffs should be left as a tool for forcing Russia to peace,” Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Heart, wrote on Telegram.
“If they are introduced now, what will they threaten in a week?”
Properly, there’s a solution to that – extra sanctions.
For now, although, it appears the US is content material to cosy as much as the Kremlin slightly than coerce it. The query is, who is asking the photographs?
