For some motive, crypto merchants look to Arthur Hayes for market forecasts. Hayes rose to prominence as CEO of BitMEX, as soon as the world’s largest crypto derivatives trade, the place his market-maker traded towards his personal prospects.
Hayes’ fame continued after his indictment and home arrest, and he’s now chief funding officer at Maelstrom.
Though a complete accounting of each prediction Hayes ever made is past the scope of this text, Protos has analyzed 20 of his most up-to-date predictions and listed the outcomes beneath.
Sub-$50K bitcoin
On September 6, 2024, Hayes predicted, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.”
Sadly, bitcoin didn’t drop beneath $50,000. Later that day, it briefly dropped to $52,546, nevertheless it has by no means traded at a cheaper price since.
Conclusion: Fail.
Crypto’s March peak
On January 6, 2025, Hayes predicted that crypto markets would peak in mid-March 2025.
Nonetheless, the very best market capitalization for crypto belongings occurred on the day of Donald Trump’s inauguration — January 20, 2025.
By March, crypto’s whole market cap was over half a trillion {dollars} decrease than on the day of the inauguration.
Conclusion: Fail.
Bitcoin will hit $110,000 earlier than reset
On March 23, Hayes predicted, “I bet BTC hits $110,000 before it retests $76,500.”
On the contrary, BTC re-tested $76,500 on April 7 and did not hit $110,000 between March 23 and April 7.
I guess $BTC hits $110k earlier than it retests $76.5k.
Y? The Fed goes from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter trigger “transitory inflation”. JAYPOW instructed me so.
I’ll expound on that in my subsequent essay, that’s the TLDR to your TikTok peanut mind.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 24, 2025
Conclusion: Fail.
Hayes’ bullish picks
On January 6, 2025, Hayes printed a bullish forecast for seven crypto belongings: BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON.
Sadly, the year-to-date returns of those picks are as follows:
BIO -89%
VITA -76%
ATH -28%
GROW -86%
PSY -73%
CRYO -78%
NEURON -77%
I guess $BTC hits $110k earlier than it retests $76.5k.
Y? The Fed goes from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter trigger “transitory inflation”. JAYPOW instructed me so.
I’ll expound on that in my subsequent essay, that’s the TLDR to your TikTok peanut mind.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 24, 2025
Conclusion: Seven failures.
Hayes says ‘buy everything’
On Could 12, Hayes made a macroeconomic forecast for the broad market, saying, “Buy everything.”
At the moment, the Vanguard Complete World Index opened pre-market buying and selling at $121.72. It stays inside 1% of that value as of publication time and there was no substantial change in world fairness costs for the reason that name.
Conclusion: Indeterminate.
Bitcoin’s $1 million rally
On numerous dates in 2024 and on Could 4 this yr, Hayes predicted that BTC would rally to $1 million by 2028.
Though BTC has rallied since Hayes made his prediction, it stays greater than 89% beneath his goal value.
Conclusion: Indeterminate.
Even Hayes admitted his failure fee
On September 25 final yr, Hayes analyzed his eight most up-to-date predictions spanning 2023 to autumn 2024.
Sadly, solely six of his final eight predictions at the moment have been appropriate.
Conclusion: Six self-admitted failures, two successes.
In abstract, Hayes failed in 16 of those 20 predictions, succeeded in two, and predicted two costs for future timeframes that make a present dedication unattainable.
