House Workplace minister Mike Tapp debated alongside shadow justice minister Dr Kieran Mullan, the Liberal Democrats’ dwelling affairs spokesperson Lisa Good, and Reform UK’s head of coverage Zia Yusuf.
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Here is what we have discovered.
What number of unlawful migrants are there within the UK?
Reform’s Zia Yusuf used his opening assertion to repeat a statistic which his get together has referenced typically in current weeks – that there are “north of” a million folks “in this country illegally”.
Nevertheless, this isn’t one thing now we have dependable information on, or that Mr Yusuf can declare to confidently know.
“Illegal”, or “unauthorised”, tends to confer with migrants with out legitimate immigration standing to be within the UK. For instance those that enter the nation and not using a visa, or who overstay a sound visa, or stay within the UK after an unsuccessful asylum declare.
They aren’t legally allowed to work, and they don’t seem to be eligible for housing advantages or most free public companies.
We have no idea how many individuals fall into this class, and the federal government doesn’t produce estimates – some folks might disappear from the system.
The newest unbiased estimates are for 2017. However the College of Oxford’s Migration Observatory advises treating these with excessive warning as they’ve a excessive margin for error.
They have been printed by the Pew Analysis Centre, an American assume tank, and put the determine at anyplace between 700,000 to 900,000 in 2017. That is revised down from a earlier estimate of 1.2 million, which is probably going too excessive.
Small boat crossings
Diane from Slough, in our viewers, requested a query in regards to the variety of folks crossing on small boats, to which Conservative Dr Kieran Mullan responded: “The number of people crossing has gone up. It’s at record levels compared to when Labour took office.”
Newly appointed Labour House Workplace minister Mike Tapp later defended his get together’s report, saying: “We inherited open borders. We inherited a system that had 150,000 people crossing in just three or four years.”
There are inaccuracies with each of these statements. Fewer than 130,000 folks arrived on small boats within the six years earlier than Labour got here to energy, with nearly all of these since 2020 – not 150,000 as Mr Tapp claimed.
And Dr Mullan will not be proper to say the variety of folks arriving is at report ranges.
Extra folks have crossed the Channel on small boats to this point this 12 months than had by this level in any earlier 12 months, however the highest variety of arrivals recorded throughout a 365-day interval occurred between October 2021 and October 2022, spanning the premierships of three Tory prime ministers – Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.
These numbers had began to fall, nonetheless, beneath Mr Sunak, earlier than rising after Sir Keir Starmer turned PM. Mr Tapp’s declare that his get together “inherited open borders” did not handle this truth.
The House Workplace has beforehand claimed that an prolonged interval of calm climate within the Channel has made it simpler for migrants to cross.
However our evaluation discovered that, whereas it is true the climate has been unusually calm this 12 months, that issue alone can not clarify the excessive variety of crossings over the past 12 months.
Asylum inns
Dr Mullan additionally claimed “the number of people in hotels is higher than it was when Labour took office”.
That is true – there are at present 32,059 asylum seekers being housed in 210 inns within the UK, in contrast with 29,585 folks in 213 inns when Labour have been elected.
However the highest quantity on report was whereas the Conservatives have been in energy. In September 2023, there have been 56,042 asylum seekers being housed in 400 inns. That quantity had fallen considerably by the point they left workplace.
See what number of asylum seekers are being housed in your space:
A report variety of folks claimed asylum within the UK within the 12 months to June 2025, at over 111,000. Over the identical interval, 134,037 preliminary choices have been taken on asylum functions, with round 52,000 granted and 58,000 refused.
These with a rejected declare can go on to attraction, and the current elevated variety of functions in addition to the next price of preliminary rejections has led to a backlog within the courts, now at over 50,000 folks.
The federal government has stated it needs to extend returns of failed asylum seekers and others with out authorized immigration standing, however Reform’s Mr Yusuf accused them of overinflating the numbers, as most returns are voluntary.
The variety of removals of individuals with out authorized immigration standing was 35,833 folks within the 12 months to June 2025, a rise of 5,000 on the 12 months previous it, with returns now at their highest stage since 2016/17, although decrease than the 47,000 in 2012.
Authorized migration
Asylum claims are a a lot smaller share of total migration than authorized work routes.
Mr Tapp stated immigration was too excessive beneath the Conservatives, and Labour had managed to “cut that by 300,000”, and had “halved working visas”. He stated Labour are rising necessities for {qualifications} and salaries.
However a lot of this development was already beneath approach earlier than Labour took workplace.
Although the Tories oversaw a giant improve in authorized migration, they have been additionally accountable for later rolling again and tightening the principles, for instance on limiting care employee and pupil dependants in early 2024.
This led to the variety of work dependant visas halving to 103,518 by 2025, and pupil dependant visas lowering by 88% to 18,000.
Labour’s immigration white paper units out an additional tightening of the principles. The House Workplace says this can end in 98,000 fewer visas being issued subsequent 12 months.
That’s equal to 10% of all of these issued in 2024, however lower than the drop since 2023 which Mr Tapp was speaking about. That was largely a results of lowering numbers of dependants.
The ONS initiatives internet migration to fall additional, to a mean long-term stage of 340,000 a 12 months by mid-2028, based mostly on the development from earlier than the Conservatives left workplace.
Do migrants contribute greater than they take?
Throughout the debate, viewers member Tavinder from Bromsgrove requested: “Does legal immigration benefit the UK? And their contribution: are they taking more or contributing more?”
From a purely financial perspective, the reply is rather more complicated than a easy “yes” or “no.”
In keeping with 2024 evaluation from the Workplace for Finances Accountability (OBR), the UK’s unbiased assessor of public funds, whether or not a migrant is a internet contributor or internet “taker” from the economic system will depend on a number of elements, together with their age and common earnings.
The OBR discovered the typical high-wage migrant employee arriving on the age of 25 is a internet contributor to the economic system throughout their total lifetime. A excessive wage right here is measured as one about 30% larger than the typical wage.
The common annual wage within the UK is at present £37,430, which means a “high wage” is something above £48,659.
A typical British-born particular person has a damaging fiscal affect on the economic system as a toddler. Over the course of their working years, this “debt” is step by step diminished till they grow to be internet optimistic contributors.
In distinction, migrant staff incomes above-average wages and immigrating throughout their prime working years skip this era of damaging fiscal affect on the UK as youngsters. This implies they begin paying into the economic system as quickly as they arrive.
Alternatively, the OBR estimated the standard low-wage migrant staff has a internet damaging fiscal contribution to the UK that solely grows as they age.
