There are developments within the quest for peace in Ukraine.
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Essentially the most intriguing improvement got here at lunchtime on Thursday.
“He must have got this from K…” wrote Donald Trump’s particular envoy Steve Witkoff on X. He clearly thought he was sending a non-public message.
He was replying to a scoop of a narrative by Axios’s Barak Ravid.
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Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy for the Center East and trusted Ukraine peace plan man. Pic: Reuters
The story revealed a “secret” plan to finish the Ukraine struggle. The report steered the People had been speaking secretly to the Russians a couple of renewed effort to carry the struggle to an finish, which concerned Ukraine ceding land it nonetheless controls to Russia.
Who’s “K” in Witkoff’s message? It is in all probability Kirill Dmitriev, who has change into Putin’s unofficial and unlikely envoy to Washington. Kyiv-born and Stanford-educated Dmitriev is, primarily, Witkoff’s Russian reverse quantity.
In a way, they’re the yin and yang of this geopolitical puzzle. Witkoff is an actual property mogul. Dmitriev is an economist. They’re opposing forces with backgrounds which might be, on the face of it, equally unsuited to geopolitical battle decision. But their two leaders are trusting them with this large process.
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Kirill Dmitriev was in Alaska for the Trump-Putin summit earlier this yr. Pic: Reuters
‘Territorial concessions’ in 28-point plan
So, again to the developments to have emerged during the last 24 hours.
First, we all know senior US Division of Warfare officers, together with Military Secretary Dan Driscoll, have arrived within the Ukrainian capital to satisfy their counterparts there.
Their go to was scheduled however the focus shifted. The plan to debate drone expertise and the winter offensive morphed right into a dialogue a couple of Russian-presented peace plan Witkoff and Dmitriev had been discussing.
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Rescue staff clear rubble after a Russian strike on Ternopil, Ukraine. Pic: AP
That is the second improvement. The Axios report – which Witkoff appears inadvertently to have steered got here from Dmitriev – claims the 2 envoys met lately in Florida (Witkoff’s base) to debate a 28-point plan for peace.
Ukrainian sources have steered to me in clear phrases they don’t seem to be pleased with this Witkoff-Dmitriev plan. Sources inform me it contains “territorial concessions” and “reductions in military strength”. The Ukrainian place is the plan represents the most recent try to “play the American government”.
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Loss of life toll rises after Russian strikes
What’s occurring with safety ensures?
Ukraine needs safety ensures from the US. Trump signalled throughout Zelenskyy’s final go to to Washington that he was keen to supply these. This was framed by the Europeans as an enormous constructive improvement, though the White Home didn’t spell out the essential element – what would these ensures really entail?
The most recent reporting, from Axios, suggests the safety ensures (nonetheless undefined, publicly no less than) are depending on Ukraine giving up the entire of the Donbas area – this would come with about 15% of territory Russia doesn’t at present maintain.
Crucially, the areas of the Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw (the 15%) could be thought of a demilitarised zone. The plan is similar to one floated by Vice President JD Vance within the months earlier than Trump gained final yr’s election, which was roundly rejected as a non-starter on the time.
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Is Gaza plan the mannequin?
One other supply, from a 3rd nation near the negotiations, has instructed me the Qataris are taking part in a job within the talks and have been current on the weekend when Steve Witkoff met Ukraine’s nationwide safety advisor Rustem Umerov final weekend.
Qatari and Turkish mediation, together with the multipoint peace plan for Gaza, is being projected as a mannequin transferable to Ukraine regardless of the battle, challenges, and root causes being wholly completely different.
Different European sources instructed me this morning they weren’t conscious of this Russian-American plan. It is value remembering it is within the pursuits of the Russians to be seen to be engaged in peace proposals so as to keep away from secondary sanctions from the US.
Zelenskyy has been in Turkey over the previous 24 hours, the place he singled out Trump’s efforts to seek out peace.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press convention in Ankara. Pic: AP
That is the very important language of flattery.
